Topline
The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates for a third time this year on Wednesday, as some economists believe Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other policymakers will signal a cautious approach to cuts for next year.
Betting markets and brokerages have projected a third interest rate cut this year from the Fed.
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Key Facts
Traders have priced in nearly 90% odds of the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates by a quarter point, which would bring the target rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, according to CME’s FedWatch tool, while betting sites Polymarket and Kalshi both offer odds of 97%.
Optimism for an interest rate cut was boosted last month when New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said he saw room for a rate cut in the “near term,” after Powell, who last spoke publicly after the Fed cut rates in October, said a further reduction in rates was “not a foregone conclusion.”
Other Fed officials have signaled support for a rate cut: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly reportedly said she would vote to lower interest rates as broader concerns about rising inflation had shifted to a deteriorating labor market.
JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Nomura and Standard Chartered have each reversed their calls on the Fed’s decision in recent weeks, telling investors they now expect a rate cut after earlier projecting rates to be held, as Standard Chartered wrote that economic data released after the government shutdown has been “unrevealing.”
Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem are expected to dissent in favor of maintaining interest rates in their current range, according to Bloomberg, and Fed Governor Stephen Miran will likely dissent for a third-straight time in favor of a half-point cut.
It’s unclear whether other Fed officials would dissent, as Boston Fed President Susan Collins, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Fed Governor Michael Barr have each expressed concerns about rising inflation.
What To Watch For
How Powell addresses future interest rate cuts. Goldman Sachs analysts wrote this week they expect Powell to suggest the “bar has risen” for further reductions, and that five Fed officials will likely express caution for additional interest rate cuts.