Santa hat and thermometer perched on volcanic rock by the sea with tinsel, evoking a warm Christmas getaway or sunny winter escape under a bright blue sky
getty
As we enter the twelve days before Christmas, early indications within weather models suggest that much of the United States is in store for a warm Christmas week. Given the information that we have at this point, let’s examine why “warm” not “white” Christmas week appears to be on tap.
As a weather scholar, I try to be responsible when it comes to longer-term weather forecasts. Unfortunately, a lot of really irresponsible weather information is spread on social media platforms these days. My eyes roll everytime I see someone share an isolated, “wish-casted,” attention-seeking forecast of a snow storm or hurricane without proper context. When you see such information, ask yourself whether it is an isolated weather run, cherry-picked, or beyond two weeks or so.
There are credible sources for week-to-seasonal predictability that do not involve rodents coming out of the ground or almanacs. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issues outlooks that span several days, weeks or even months. The graphic below is the 8-to-14 Day Outlook valid for the period of December 20 to December 26. That’s Christmas Week.
Temperature and precipitation outlook for the United States during the week of Christmas.
NOAA Climate Prediction Center website
Much of the U.S. has a high probability of experiencing above-normal temperatures. We reach the winter solstice on December 21, so why is it going to be so warm this Christmas? Let’s explore the NOAA CPC discussion for clues. They wrote, “Model tools for the CONUS predict likely near to above normal temperatures across most of the CONUS in the 8-14 day period under a persistent ridge and positive 500-hPa height
anomalies.”
Though not evident to many people, there is a reason meteorologists launch weather balloons and satellites. Prediction of weather at the surface requires understanding of what is going on above us. Using upper atmosphere data, we produce upper air maps. NOAA’s website pointed out, ”The pictures above show what a very basic upper air weather map might look like (in this example, at 500 mb or about 18,000 feet)…. At right, we see a “ridge” of high pressure aloft.” The website went on to say, “A surface high pressure system and often fair weather typically are located ahead (east) of an upper ridge axis with lower surface pressure behind (west of) the ridge. Troughs and ridges can be weak or quite strong.”
Whenever you see meteorologists talking about persistent ridges or high pressure, that’s usually an indicator of warmer and drier conditions. Keeping in mind the caveats I mentioned about showing one-model outcomes, the map below shows “one” depiction of expected mid-level atmospheric conditions on Christmas Day. I present this data from the American GFS model to show you an example of “ridging” within an actual weather context.
High-pressure ridging over much of the U.S. is expected on Christmas Day. Warmer-than-normal conditions are expected.
College of Dupage NEXLAB/NOAA
This ridging explains why it is likely that many of us will have a “warm Christmas” rather than a “white Christmas. As I peer further into the NOAA 3-month outlook, the southern tier of the U.S. looks warmer and drier than normal into 2026, which does not bode well for snow lovers in the South. This pattern is very consistent with expectations of an ongoing La Niña pattern in the eastern Pacific Ocean. NOAA predicts that pattern to linger for another month or so before transitioning to neutral conditions.
By the way, I often hesitate to show outlook maps because they can be misinterpreted. Even though an outlook may call for warmer-than-normal conditions, that doesn’t mean there won’t be a cold day over that period of time. What’s the average of these numbers — 5,5,5,5,5? Yep, the answer is 5. What’s the average of these numbers — 10, 6, 8, 1, 0? It is also 5. You had 3 days above average and 2 days below. Hope that helps.
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays.
NOAA winter season outlook.
NOAA