Anti-Tanking Rules Leave White Sox With 10th Pick, Not No. 1

Trying to improve competitive integrity, MLB instituted so called “anti-tanking” rules in 2022. But the White Sox had lost plenty over the previous decade before the 41-121 nightmare last season.

In part because of poor drafts, they’ve had winning records in only two of the last 12 seasons. It’s crucial they land a difference-maker with the 10th pick on Sunday.

They would have had the first overall pick had they not selected fifth last year. The new rules don’t allow large-market teams to pick higher than 10th in consecutive drafts.

Luckily for the White Sox, however, this is one of the least predictable drafts in years. There’s little consensus on the top pick, so the Sox could land a cornerstone talent with the 10th pick.

They are certainly due.

It’s been 35 years since the end of a franchise-changing run when Jerry Reinsdorf’s team selected Jack McDowell (No. 5 overall), Robin Ventura (No. 10), Frank Thomas (No. 7) and Alex Fernandez (No. 4) in consecutive drafts. They’ve had only seven top-10 picks since then, and the players they picked returned only 17.5 WAR in their 28 seasons with the Sox — a return on the large investment of only 0.6 WAR per season.

Carlos Rodon is the best of the six big-leaguers. He was selected third in ’14 after blowing away hitters with his fastball-slider combination at North Carolina State. But frequent injuries limited him to under 100 innings in three of his seven seasons in Chicago. He left as a free agent after 2020.

Gordon Beckham, Carson Fulmer, Zack Collins, Nick Madrigal and Andrew Vaughn yielded low returns, leaving fans to ask how the Sox missed on the likes of Josh Naylor, Ian Happ, Will Smith, Logan Gilbert, Jonathan India, Nico Hoerner, Riley Greene and Corbin Carroll.

The jury is out on 2024 first-rounder Hagen Smith but signs are encouraging. He’s pitched well as a pro, reaching Double-A after only three starts in A-ball, and was pitching to a 2.10 ERA through seven starts this season before needing a six-week break to deal with elbow soreness while also smoothing out his delivery earlier this season. He returned on June 28.

In the second draft run by General Manger Chris Getz, who replaced Rick Hahn and Ken Williams late in the 2023 season, the White Sox hold three of the first 76 picks. They seem most in need of impact bats, as they’ve gotten solid work out of 25-and-under pitchers Shane Smith, Sean Burke, Jonathan Cannon, Mike Basil and Grant Taylor, with prospects Noah Schultz, Jairo Iriarte and Smith in the wings.

Shortstop Colson Montgomery, who was selected 22nd overall in the 2021 draft, became the ninth member of the White Sox to make his big-league debut in 2025 when he was promoted last weekend. He was viewed as a likely cornerstone piece in the organization rebuild before taking a step backward in ’24 and continued to struggle at the start of the season in Triple-A. Montgomery looked like rookie-season Gunnar Henderson at Coors Field, going 5-for-10 with a triple and two walks in his first series in the majors.

Conventional wisdom holds there will be a run on high school shortstops before the White Sox select. That could leave them in good position to select a college hitter, with the hope he can arrive by 2027, if not sooner.

In a recent mock draft, Baseball America speculated the Sox would select Florida State left-hander Jamie Arnold if the run on prep shortstops left him on the board. But it won’t be an easy choice if Tennessee second baseman Gavin Kilen, Wake Forest shortstop Marek Houston, Arizona outfielder Brendan Summerhill or Texas A&M outfielder Jace LaViolette are available.

Maybe Montgomery will become the tipping point for the White Sox’s success on draft day. But it sure won’t hurt to over-deliver with the 10th pick when MLB is taking away the first overall.