As Trump-Xi Meet, Stunning Declines From Trade War Appear Personal

President Trump talks to Chinese President Xi Jinping in October in South Korea. The trade war Trump started in 2018 has changed the trade relationship between the leaders and the world’s two largest economies in significant ways.

AFP via Getty Images

As President Trump and President Xi Jinping meet in Beijing today, if you are looking for hints that the trade-war friction between the world’s two largest economies might be personal, look no further than U.S. exports of soybeans. Or oil. Or passenger vehicles.

Sure, U.S. soybean exports have increased by $983.90 million from the first quarter of 2018 to this year, according to my analysis of the latest U.S. Census Bureau data.

But it’s not that simple.

Soybean exports, while up from the first quarter of 2018, the tail end of the growing season, are down 44.27% from three years ago, when President Joe Biden was in the White House. In fact, the four top years for first-quarter soybean exports were when Biden was president – even though he did not reduce Trump’s tariffs.

Among the U.S. exports caught in the trade war Trump started with China in 2018, the decline in U.S. exports of soybeans to China has received a great deal of attention, primarily because the majority of them were once shipped there from states Trump won in his first election. Last year, for five consecutive months, total U.S. soybean exports to China were zero, an unprecedented blow to farmers, largely in the Midwest. That market is now largely lost to Brazil.

But it’s not just soybeans – oil is getting the “soybean treatment” this year, with a 100% decline – to zero – in first-quarter exports to China, a drop of $2.27 billion. As recently as 2023, when Biden was president, China was the No. 1 market for U.S. exports of oil.

Passenger vehicle exports have also fallen sharply, down 83.26% since the first quarter of 2018, before the launch of the trade war, when it was the second-largest market to Germany.

In a similar pattern, those exports fell sharply in 2019 and 2020 – the last two years of Trump’s first term – before rebounding through 2024, while Biden was president. For those four years, China was once again the second-biggest market for passenger vehicle exports, trailing only Germany. In 2025 and 2026, those exports fell again. China ranks No. 8 this year, with a market share of 2.93%, down from a peak of 10.35% in 2022.

Those are largely retaliatory efforts, of course. It’s pretty clear why, given the stunning decline in U.S. imports from China and its overall standing as a U.S. trade partner.

Since Trump initiated the trade war, largely in an effort to reduce the U.S. deficit, Chinese imports into the United States have fallen 50.47% and its U.S. deficit by 63.03%.

China’s percentage of U.S. trade has fallen from 15.61% to 6.22%, through the first quarter of 2026 when compared to the same period of 2018.

China has fallen from the top U.S. trade partner to a distant third behind Mexico and Canada, its overall U.S. trade down 43.14%.

That decline is not only large – U.S. trade increased 41.84% in that time period – it is unusual. Trade with only two other top 50 U.S. trade partners has fallen since the first quarter of 2018, Israel and Venezuela.

Nevertheless, China stands out.

In 2018, the U.S. trade deficit with China was more than five times that of any other country, a deficit that has bedeviled many a president but particularly Trump.

Today, because of steep tariffs that remain in place since Trump first instituted them in 2018, that deficit is smaller than the deficit with Taiwan, Vietnam and Mexico. It has fallen from $90.61 billion in the first quarter of 2018, to $33.49 billion this year. The overall annual deficit has continued to increase.

China’s imports, off 50.47% as previously noted, have fallen as a percentage of U.S. imports from 20.56% in the first three months of 2018 to 7.46% today. That’s a smaller percentage than for Mexico, Canada and even Taiwan.

Here is a look at a few of the imports from China that have fallen the most in value since the first quarter of 2018:

No. 1 cell phones and related parts, down 74.39%, with China having been supplanted by Vietnam, India, Thailand and Mexico as the largest U.S. supplier. Its market share has fallen from 64.20% in 2018 to 10.71% this year. The decline was $12.62 billion. U.S. imports from the world have increased 53.49%.

No. 3 computers, down 92.59%, its rank from No. 1 to No. 6 behind Taiwan, Mexico, Thailand, Vietnam and Hungary. Its market share has fallen from 53.39% in 2018 to 0.87% in 2026. Once the third-leading U.S. import from China, today it is No. 15. The decline was $9.67 billion. U.S. imports from the world have increased 351.53%.

No. 8 TVs and computer monitors, down 84.10%. In one of the few examples of “near-shoring,” Mexico now accounts for a majority of these imports into the United States. In the spring of 2018, China accounted for 53.92% of all U.S. imports. Today, Mexico accounts for a similar 53.07%. For the first time, China’s percentage has fallen below 10% to 9.47%, also trailing Vietnam. The decline was $2.08 billion. U.S. imports from the world have fallen 9.46%.

Printers, ranked No. 12 in 2018, now rank No. 65, the value of imports having fallen $1.19 billion, a decline of 85% from 2018. Furniture imports have fallen $2.07 billion, a decline of 69.93%. Seats, often for the automotive industry, have fallen $1.87 billion, a decline of 68.51%.

What emerges from all of this data is not just a shift in trade flows, but a structural realignment that will be difficult to reverse. Supply chains have been rerouted, market share has been redistributed, and political incentives on both sides seem to favor maintaining distance rather than rebuilding dependence.