Samuel Basallo has an excellent opportunity to hit a home run tonight.
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Sadly, the MLB best home run bets didn’t maintain momentum after a correct home run prop selection on Monday. Instead, two more incorrect selections dropped the season’s record to 8-30, with two no bets for players who didn’t play.
Home run props are challenging to hit. Yet, the home run bets also have inviting betting odds, and being picky can be fruitful with only a few hits. As a result, the season’s profits are $425, despite the lackluster record for winners.
Tonight’s MLB slate features all 30 MLB clubs, providing ample home run bets to choose from. The following two picks offer the most alluring blend of betting odds and likelihood of cashing.
MLB Best Home Run Bets
Samuel Basallo (Baltimore Orioles – C)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+436) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Samuel Basallo raked in the minors, hitting 23 home runs in 76 games and 321 plate appearances in Triple-A before hitting four homers in 31 games and 118 plate appearances for the Orioles last season. Basallo’s debut in the Majors wasn’t earth-shattering, but it was acceptable, and he’s kicked it up a notch in his sophomore campaign.
Basallo has hit five home runs in 34 games and 130 plate appearances this year, with a 15.4-degree launch angle, 20.7% line-drive rate, 39.1% fly-ball rate and 14.7% home run per fly-ball rate (HR/FB). Seven of his nine career home runs have been in 197 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.
Basallo’s other batted-ball data is rock-solid, too. Among 270 qualified batters this season, Basallo is tied for 78th in barrels per plate appearance rate (7.0%), tied for 83rd in barrels per batted-ball event rate (10.3%), 42nd in hard-hit rate (48.3%), 31st in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (96.5 mph) and tied for 67th in maximum exit velocity (111.8 mph).
Basallo’s matchup tonight is the best on the slate. Zack Littell’s 3.47 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) is the highest among the slate’s probable starting pitchers. Littell has permitted 27 home runs to 446 left-handed batters at 2.27 HR/9 since last season. Washington’s relievers have also allowed the third most home runs per nine innings (1.32) this year, giving Basallo a backdoor means of hitting a home run if he doesn’t smack one against Littell. Basallo’s +436 odds at DraftKings for his home run bet are too good to pass up.
Mickey Moniak has muscled up against righties at Coors Field.
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Mickey Moniak (Colorado Rockies – OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+550) at theScoreBet
Mickey Moniak hit a career-high 24 home runs in his first year with the Rockies in 2025, and he’s pacing to blow that number out of the water this year, with 12 home runs through 36 games and 141 plate appearances. Moniak has belted 29 home runs in 494 plate appearances against right-handed pitching at home since last year.
The 28-year-old outfielder’s batted-ball data is also stellar. Among 270 qualified batters this season, Moniak is tied for 26th in barrels per plate appearance rate (9.9%), tied for 34th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (14.9%), tied for 113th in hard-hit rate (42.6%), tied for 73rd in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (94.8 mph), tied for 106th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (35.1%) and sixth in launch-angle steepness (23.3 degrees).
Moniak has a plus matchup and outstanding park factors tonight. Merrill Kelly’s 2.08 HR/9 is the third-highest mark among tonight’s probable starting pitchers. Arizona’s bullpen’s 1.03 HR/9 is also the 12th-highest mark. Finally, Coors Field’s 110 park factor for home runs since 2025 is tied for the 10th-highest in MLB. Moniak should add to his home run ledger and make his home run bet a winner tonight.