Liam Hicks has an excellent opportunity to snap his homer skid tonight.
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The MLB best home run bets are in a slight funk after two more incorrect home run props on Friday. The season’s home run props sit at an 8-32 record, with two no bets for players who didn’t play.
Home run bets have long odds because they’re long-shot wagers, and losing streaks and cold spells are part of the equation. Fortunately, hitting a few bets can be enough to generate a profit. Even with the recent skid, the season’s profits are $225 for anyone who bet $100 on the best home run bets at the odds listed in the article.
Today’s home run bets will either swell the profits or essentially erase them. The following two home run bets offer the best blend of likelihood of success and betting odds.
MLB Best Home Run Bets
Liam Hicks (Miami Marlins – C)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+700) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Liam Hicks hit only six home runs in 119 games and 390 plate appearances as a rookie last year, but he’s already muscled up for nine home runs in 44 games and 165 plate appearances this year. The 26-year-old catcher hasn’t hit a home run since May 7.
Still, Hicks has made tangible changes to increase his power. In 2025, Hicks had an 84.6 mph average exit velocity, 10.6-degree launch angle, 3.5% barrel rate, 27.7% hard-hit rate, 23.7% line-drive rate, 33.8% fly-ball rate, 6.4% home run per fly-ball rate (HR/FB) and 39.0% pull rate. This year, he has an 87.8 mph average exit velocity, 14.8-degree launch angle, 6.0% barrel rate, 37.3% hard-hit rate, 18.7% line-drive rate, 40.3% fly-ball rate, 16.7% HR/FB and 42.5% pull rate.
Hicks has lifted his launch angle, hit the ball harder, squared it up more often and pulled the ball more frequently. It’s an ideal combination for increasing homers, and the results speak for themselves.
Hicks has an excellent matchup to snap his home run funk tonight. First, Hicks has hit 14 of his 15 career home runs against right-handed pitching. Second, JR Ritchie’s 1.66 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) is the fifth-highest rate among tonight’s probable starters.
Ritchie has allowed at least one home run in three of four starts, coughing up two in one of his road starts and one in the other road start. Furthermore, the rookie pitcher has allowed all four of his home runs to the 63 left-handed batters he has faced. Hicks can take advantage of the matchup and cash his home run prop at drool-inducing +700 odds.
Ian Happ has optimal hitting conditions tonight to hit a home run.
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Ian Happ (Chicago Cubs – OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+350) at theScoreBet
Ian Happ has crushed 10 home runs this year in 45 games and 204 plate appearances. Happ has hit seven of his 10 home runs in 147 plate appearances against righties in 2026, eight of 10 at home in 107 plate appearances and five of them in 75 plate appearances against righties at home this season.
The switch-hitting outfielder has outstanding batted-ball data. Among 269 qualified hitters this season, Happ is tied for 43rd in barrels per plate appearance rate (8.8%), 15th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (17.5%), tied for 84th in hard-hit rate (44.7%), tied for 47th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (95.7 mph), tied for 79th in maximum exit velocity (111.5 mph) and tied for 94th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (35.9%).
Happ has an ideal matchup. Brandon Sproat’s 2.00 HR/9 in eight appearances (six starts) in 2026 is the second-highest mark among tonight’s probable starting pitchers. Sproat has allowed eight home runs this year, yielding at least one in five appearances and coughed up more than one home run twice.
Additionally, Wrigley Field’s 110 park factor for home runs since 2025 is the 10th-highest in MLB, and the weather is ideal for launching home runs tonight. The weather forecast is warm, and, more importantly, the winds are blowing out to left field or left-center field at 15-20 mph. Happ has the requisite pop to take advantage of his matchup, park factors and weather conditions to hit a home run at inviting +350 odds.