Topline
Bettors believe the Texas Senate race remains a toss-up despite Attorney General Ken Paxton’s thumping win in the GOP primary runoff Tuesday night—after Democrats’ odds have narrowed in recent months—with some pollsters suggesting the result slightly boosts the chances of a blue upset in the red state.
Attorney General Ken Paxton speaks at an election night watch party held by the Lone Star Liberty PAC in Plano, Texas.
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Key Facts
On crypto-based betting platform Polymarket ,bookmakers believe the GOP candidate has a 54% chance of winning the Texas Senate race compared to Democrat James Talarico’s 47%.
Talarico’s odds on Polymarket jumped slightly ahead of the Republicans after Trump announced he was endorsing Paxton—deemed a more controversial candidate—over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn.
While Talarico’s lead in the betting markets didn’t last very long, the odds of the race have significantly narrowed from being 75-25 in favor of the Republicans at the start of the year to basically a toss-up now.
Bettors on Kalshi believe Paxton has slightly better odds of beating Talarico at 55% to 45%.
However, the GOP’s odds of retaining the seat have shrunk significantly since January, when they were 80%.
Tangent
After Paxton’s victory, Cook Political Report updated its rating for the Texas Senate race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican,” highlighting the Democrats’ improved odds. In its update, the publication said Republicans were now “saddled with a controversial candidate who’s been a weak fundraiser,” and noted that Paxon has a “litany of ethical lapses for Democrats to exploit.” Former FiveThirtyEight editorial director G. Elliott Morris echoed this in his forecast and said that the Texas race was now a “tossup.” Morris noted that Paxton’s victory has given Democrats their “preferred and weaker opponent.”
What Do The Overall Betting Odds Say About The Midterms?
Despite major concerns about unfavorable redistricting, Democrats still remain the bookmakers’ favorite to win the House. According to Election Betting Odds, which consolidates numbers from multiple markets including Kalshi, Polymarket and PredictIt, bettors believe Democrats have a 75.8% chance of taking back the House. Bookmakers believe that the Senate race remains a toss-up with the GOP having slightly better overall odds of retaining control at 52.4%. The Democrats’ Senate odds have surged since the start of the year and a boost after the start of the Iran war had even pushed their odds ahead of the GOP for several weeks.
Further Reading
Ken Paxton Beats Sen. John Cornyn In Texas GOP Primary After Trump’s Last-Minute Endorsement (Forbes)