OKLAHOMA CITY, OKLAHOMA – MAY 26: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 Isaiah Hartenstein #55, Jaylin Williams #6 and Chet Holmgren #7 of the Oklahoma City Thunder react during the fourth quarter of a game against the San Antonio Spurs in Game Five of the NBA Western Conference Finals at Paycom Center on May 26, 2026 in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
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After decades of top-heavy standings and relatively predictable postseasons, the NBA has progressed toward something resembling NFL-style parity.
For the first time in league history, seven different teams have won the title over the last seven years. And it may be eight out of eight if the New York Knicks or San Antonio Spurs can triumph this June.
From 2011-19, all but two NBA Finals participants were either a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in their respective conferences. Since the 2020 postseason, it’s already happened seven times, with one Finals team each year seeded third or lower (a trend that the Knicks continued after winning the East while seeded third).
There are numerous reasons around the shift: More talent than ever before, better scouting, a more globalized game, increased reliance on high-variance factors like three-point shooting. But the biggest one may be the impact of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), and how it is truncating contention windows by increasingly forcing teams to make financial decisions specifically to avoid luxury tax thresholds.
Recent Examples of Contenders’ Cap Maneuvering
This past offseason, the Boston Celtics – at the time, barely 12 months removed from a championship – traded key title pieces Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis, while also seeing Al Horford and Luke Kornet leave in free agency. Boston successfully reorganized around youth, but still has the looming issues of how to deal with a cap table that’s 89% occupied by just three players (Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Derrick White).
The Indiana Pacers did similar maneuvering fresh off an NBA Finals trip last June. Following Tyrese Halburton’s ruptured Achilles tendon, Indiana did not want to go into the luxury tax to re-sign Myles Turner. He ultimately wound up joining the Milwaukee Bucks.
In the years since the Nuggets’ 2023 title run, Denver has shed numerous pieces from that team in an effort to luxury tax penalties – including letting Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown depart in free agency immediately after. And this past offseason’s Michael Porter Jr. trade. Despite all of that, the Nuggets could still have the largest payroll in NBA history next season.
These are not teams coming off of a lengthy stretch of championship wins, mind you. Rather, all of these moves were necessitated by the current CBA’s harsher luxury tax penalties and the skyrocketing salaries for those collecting so-called “supermax” contracts.
It’s not a knock on the players, who have earned what they make under the salary structure. Instead, it’s a note on how quickly those salaries can impact a team’s contention window, even after just one title (as was the case with all three examples above).
CLEVELAND, OHIO – MAY 25: Mitchell Robinson #23 of the New York Knicks dunks the ball against Jaylon Tyson #20 of the Cleveland Cavaliers during the first quarter in Game Four of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals at Rocket Arena on May 25, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
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This Year’s Finals Participants Face Similar Decisions
The trend of post-Finals cap casualties could continue this June.
While the Knicks have core players Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart on the books through at least the 2027-28 season, the same won’t be true for most of New York’s crucial bench contributors.
Jose Alvarado has a $4.5 million player option for next year, while Mitchell Robinson, Landry Shamet and Jordan Clarkson (among others) are all unrestricted free agents.
ESPN’s Tim Bontemps has already reported that Robinson and Shamet are both likely to return on two-year deals as the team goes deep into the luxury tax’s punitive second apron over the next couple years. But the bill will come due with this core after that. At which point, the Knicks will either have to accept steeper tax penalties or let key players go (via trade or free agency).
Should the Oklahoma City Thunder win the right to defend their championship this weekend, they’ll face a similar roster debate, albeit without the same astronomical revenues that the Knicks possess to offset the luxury tax.
Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander combine to make up 75% of the Thunder’s cap on their own, and the team is already in the luxury tax before even accounting for club options on Isaiah Hartenstein ($28.5 million), Lu Dort ($18.2 million) and and Kenrich Williams ($7.2 million).
Hartenstein, a key piece of the puzzle for the Thunder these past two years, was already a cap casualty for a contending Knicks team just a couple offseasons ago, which is how he wound up with OKC to begin with.
Oklahoma City’s large collection of young talent and draft picks allow it to potentially make shrewder decisions than most teams in their position. But the point stands: The Thunder’s 2026-27 roster will be fundamentally different than this year’s.
SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS – MAY 28: Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs looks on during the second quarter against the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game Six of the NBA Western Conference Finals at Frost Bank Center on May 28, 2026 in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
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Benefits Of Being Ahead of Schedule
The exception here, however, could be the Spurs.
If San Antonio can outlast the Thunder and beat the Knicks in the Finals, the team would not face similar math yet – simply because they’re ahead of schedule with a core of extremely young players. Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper will all be under 25 years old next season, and will all make less than $17 million each on their respective rookie contracts.
De’Aron Fox and Devin Vassell are the only Spurs players set to earn over $20 million next season, and both have contracts already locked in through 2028-29 (Fox’s goes a year beyond that).
San Antonio’s marth starts getting a little trickier after next season when Wemby hits restricted free agency, and Keldon Johnson’s salary would take a significant leap as well if he’s re-signed as an unrestricted free agent. But largely, this is still a team ahead of schedule, that gets to enjoy the benefits of pushing off larger cap questions a couple more years.
Unfortunately for the rest of the NBA, it’s near-impossible to make that (being this far ahead) the plan.
OKC is relatively young, but still has the aforementioned cap quandaries. And even for teams flush with picks, not every player is going to hit almost immediately like Wembanyama, Castle and Harper have for the Spurs.
The CBA is forcing new ways of building a contender, though. And that’s ultimately become a good thing when evaluating the NBA’s newfound depth when it comes to teams capable of winning a championship.