An infographic showing the map of China and Taiwan created in Istanbul, Turkiye on October 15, 2024. (Photo by Muhammed Ali Yigit/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Anadolu via Getty Images
To counter adverse fallout with China from our failure to win the Iran war, the U.S. must redouble its efforts to save Taiwan from gradually falling into Beijing’s clutches.
Despite massive damage inflicted by the American and Israeli militaries before President Trump declared a premature ceasefire, Iran’s fanatical regime has not only survived but also established a potent power over the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, the regime hasn’t given up its remaining missiles and drones or its ability to make more in the future. It will still be able to help its terrorist proxies. Every Arab country in the Middle East knows Iran, as never before, is a power to be reckoned with. The impression is that the U.S. just wants out of the conflict.
In the eyes of Xi Jinping, the U.S. has demonstrated it has no stomach for the hard and consistent effort to lead the Free World the way it did during the Cold War. He may now conclude that he can ultimately get his way with Taiwan without firing a shot. After all, the impression is growing that the U.S. is an erratic, unreliable ally that won’t stop a Chinese move on Taiwan or its neighboring islands. You can bet Chinese diplomats and influencers are whispering that it would be wise to begin deepening ties, including political ones, with Beijing. This would be a version of that old tale about the frog in gradually boiling water.
Xi Jinping has already met in Beijing with Cheng Li-wun, the new leader of Taiwan’s major opposition party, the Kuomintang, known in English as the Nationalists. Cheng recently visited the U.S. At best, she has come across to many China hands as something of an unwitting stalking horse for the Chinese Communist Party. She has made noises about better relations between Taipei and Beijing in a manner suggesting a move away from the U.S. and more toward kowtowing to the mainland.
Some 2 million Chinese fled to Taiwan after the Communists won the civil war against the Nationalists in 1949. These Nationalists ruled Taiwan without interruption until a candidate of the native, pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, the DPP, won the presidency in 2000. The DPP knows better than to declare independence. But they, and most Taiwanese, don’t want to be ruled by Beijing.
To address growing anxieties about the U.S.’ reliability as a counter to potential Chinese political moves to dominate Taiwan—and indeed the rest of the world—President Trump should immediately give his assent to a $14 billion arms sale agreement with Taiwan that Congress approved in January. It’s no surprise that Xi Jinping made clear his stout opposition to such a deal when the president visited China. The implication is that if we backed off on selling the arms to Taipei, China would buy more soybeans and other stuff from the U.S. If we don’t, then our farmers and other exporters will suffer.
But appeasement will only aid Xi Jinping’s imperial goals. He respects strength.
There are other immediate steps we could take in the region to dispel misimpressions about our leadership. But that $14 billion deal would be a forceful start.