Topline
Billionaire Taylor Swift’s wedding to her NFL star fiancé Travis Kelce is rumored to be a massive New York City affair over Fourth of July weekend—and betting markets are alight with predictions of who will attend and who will support the famous couple as bridesmaids and groomsmen.
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce attend the 2026 iHeartRadio Music Awards on March 26, 2026 in Los Angeles, California.
Kevin Mazur/Getty Images for iHeartRadio
Key Facts
Kalshi and Polymarket—two of the most popular prediction market betting sites—largely agree on who is likely to serve as a bridesmaid to the richest female musician on Earth and think it’s a no-brainer that Abigail Anderson, Swift’s childhood best friend, will stand by her side.
Celebrity stylist Ashley Avignone, pop star Selena Gomez and super model Gigi Hadid are the next best bets, the two sites agree, and Polymarket also says there’s a 59% chance musician Este Haim will be in the bridal party.
Kalshi says there’s a 63% chance Kelce’s sister-in-law—Kylie Kelce—will be in the wedding party (while Polymarket isn’t offering bets on her at all), and Kalshi sets the odds much lower that any of the Haim sisters have a role in the wedding.
As for Travis Kelce, Kalshi thinks his groomsmen are most likely to be his brother Jason Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs Quarterback Patrick Mahomes, Swift’s brother Austin Swift and childhood friends Aric Jones and Kumar Ferguson (Polymarket isn’t taking bets on the groomsmen).
Both markets predict the affair will be star-studded, with a guest list likely to include musicians Max Martin, Jack Antonoff, Gracie Abrams, Phoebe Bridgers, Lana Del Rey and, though less likely, Sabrina Carpenter.
SURPRISING FACT
Both Polymarket (25%) and Kalshi (18%) think there’s a slim chance Swift’s friend and actress Blake Lively will attend the wedding. A series of bombshell text messages between the pair were published as part of a lawsuit earlier this year and revealed strain in their relationship, but Swift seemed to shut down the rumors of a falling out by donning Lively’s jewelry on the cover of the “It’s Rapturous Edition” for her “The Life of a Showgirl” album. Swift used a photo sporting a bracelet identical to a piece custom made for Lively as the album cover and as the accompanying Spotify art for the song “CANCELLED!,” which fans speculate is about maintaining her friendship with Lively despite the public scrutiny around her “It Ends With Us” lawsuit against director Justin Baldoni.
NEWS PEG
Speculation ramped up that Swift and Kelce would tie the knot at Madison Square Garden around the July 4 holiday after the New York Times reported permits for an event fitting the bill were filed with the city Wednesday. The Times said a special event will close streets around the venue from July 2 to midday July 4, and that hotel rooms have been booked for several members of the Kansas City Chiefs at the Marriott Marquis in Times Square. An unnamed city official also told the New York Times that Madison Square Garden is planning to host wedding festivities on July 3 and an event planning company requested a tent or canopy be permitted for outside MSG that will hold between 500 and 999 attendees.
BIG NUMBER
72%. That’s the Kalshi odds that Swift will get married at MSG this year. Polymarket has the offs at 76% she’ll get married in Manhattan.
Key background
The so-called “Tayvis” relationship took the pop culture world by storm in 2023 and the pair announced their engagement last August. Kelce proposed to Swift with an antique, elongated cushion-cut diamond set in yellow gold designed by Kindred Lubeck of Artifex Fine Jewelry, a small business based in New York. The couple hasn’t revealed much about the upcoming wedding but she did say her friend and pop star Ed Sheeran is likely to perform. She also confirmed to Graham Norton that the wedding would be a big affair: “I think the only stressful weddings are the ones where you have a small amount … and people are on the bubble and you have to evaluate or assess your relationship with them to see if they should be there. I’m not gonna do that… everyone I’ve ever talked to” is invited.
CRUCIAL QUOTE
“You would think that I had been the type of person who would have obsessed over the idea of a wedding my whole life, but I actually never thought about what I would ever do or what I would want until I met the person,” Swift told Jamie Theakston and Amanda Holden months after her engagement.
Forbes Valuation
We estimate Swift’s net worth at $2 billion as of Thursday. Nearly $800 million of her fortune comes from royalties and touring, while her music catalog is worth an estimated $600 million. Kelce was ranked No. 8 on Forbes’ list of the highest-paid NFL players in 2025 with an estimated earnings of $47.3 million before taxes and agent fees.