Pete Crow-Armstrong can hit a home run tonight in a plus matchup.
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Cold streaks are inevitable when betting on home runs, and the MLB best home run bets are in a slight funk, with six straight losing suggestions. The season’s record for home run props sits at 13-48, with three no-bets for players who didn’t start on the days their home run bets were suggested. The record would be ugly on many props, but home run bets are long-shot wagers, making the record quite good within the context.
In fact, despite the recent dry spell, the MLB best home run bets have generated $727 in profits for anyone who has wagered $100 on each of them at the touted odds. Carefully selecting home run props can yield a healthy profit with just a few winners.
Monday’s home run props will hopefully right the ship and bulge the profits, creating more wiggle room for another drought. Fortunately, the 13 games on today’s slate provide bettors with ample home run props to pick from.
MLB Best Home Run Bets
Pete Crow-Armstrong (Chicago Cubs – OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+258) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Pete Crow-Armstrong is putting forth the best offensive work of his young career, including belting 17 home runs through 84 games and 364 plate appearances after swatting 31 in 157 games and 647 plate appearances in 2025.
The 25-year-old outfielder has hit 13 of his 17 home runs in 241 plate appearances against righties and 10 of 17 in 169 plate appearances at home. Crow-Armstrong has quality batted-ball data this year. Among 258 qualified batters in 2026, the left-handed-hitting outfielder is tied for 74th in barrels per plate appearance rate (7.0%), tied for 68th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (11.2%), 18th in hard-hit rate (51.6%), 56th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (95.1 mph), tied for 22nd in maximum exit velocity (114.6 mph) and tied for 102nd in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (35.0%).
PCA has done a good job of putting his power to use by lifting it. He has a 19.4-degree launch angle, 46.8% fly-ball rate, 16.8% home run per fly-ball rate (HR/FB) and 50.7% pull rate in 2026. His fly-ball tendencies should come in handy at Wrigley Field today in a plus matchup.
Wrigley Field’s 110 park factor for home runs since 2025 is tied for the 10th-highest mark, and it includes games with the wind blowing in. Tonight, the weather will work in Crow-Armstrong’s favor, as it’s hot in Chicago, and the wind is blowing out.
In addition, Griffin Canning has struggled to keep the ball in the yard. He has allowed eight homers at 1.69 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) in 10 appearances (eight starts). Canning allowed all eight homers in his starts, and he’s surrendered all eight home runs to 119 left-handed batters faced this season. Everything is coming up roses for Crow-Armstrong, and he should launch a home run tonight.
Henry Bolte has hit both of his home runs in the Majors against left-handed pitching and faces a lefty tonight.
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Henry Bolte (Athletics – OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+476) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Rookie Henry Bolte hasn’t been a homer machine. Instead, Bolte has hit two home runs through his first 42 games and 157 plate appearances in the Majors for the Athletics.
Of note, both of Bolte’s homers have come in only 48 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. Bolte has also crushed five home runs in 74 plate appearances against left-handed pitching in Triple-A since last year.
Bolte’s context is ideal for hitting a home run tonight. Among Monday’s probable starters and expected bulk relievers, Eric Lauer’s 2.23 HR/9 is the third most this season. Lauer has surrendered 16 home runs in 12 appearances (10 starts) in 2026, avoiding a home run in only two of those appearances. The veteran lefty has allowed multiple home runs in four of his appearances.
Lauer has struggled to keep hitters of either handedness in the yard. Still, 12 of the 16 home runs Lauer has allowed this year have been to right-handed batters.
Bolte’s likelihood of hitting a home run will also get a pick-me-up from playing at Sutter Health Park and the weather tonight. Sutter Health Park has the third-highest park factor for home runs (119) since last season, and the weather will be warm, with the wind blowing out tonight. Bolte should provide the A’s with a jolt by hitting a home run tonight.