LOS ANGELES, CA – NOVEMBER 08: Timofey Mozgov #20 and Luol Deng #9 of the Los Angeles Lakers box out Andrew Bogut #6 of the Dallas Mavericks during the first half of a game at Staples Center on November 8, 2016 in Los Angeles, California.NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
Getty Images
NBA free agency officially opened at 6 p.m. ET Tuesday, but you’d be forgiven if you weren’t aware. After a week’s worth of trade fireworks—Giannis Antetokounmpo, LaMelo Ball and Kawhi Leonard are all on the move, among others—teams didn’t rush into a free-agent spending spree.
The 2016 offseason is largely to blame for that. That summer marked the beginning of the end of NBA free agency as we once knew it.
Ahead of that offseason, the NBA and National Basketball Players Association were negotiating what to do about the league’s new national TV contracts, which began in 2016-17 and nearly tripled the previous deals in value. That resulted in a massive influx of basketball-related income, which helps determine the salary cap each year.
Rather than having all of that money hit the salary cap at once, the NBA proposed gradually increasing it over time. However, the NBPA rejected that proposal because it would “artificially deflate the salary cap,” then-NBPA executive director Michele Roberts told reporters during All-Star Weekend in 2015.
Instead, the cap soared from $70 million in 2015-16 to $94.1 million in 2016-17, which was by far the biggest year-over-year jump in NBA history. NBA Commissioner Adam Silver warned that such a spike would result in unintended consequences.
“The intention wasn’t that in this system that teams could sign without going above the tax that many max player contracts and that many All-Stars,” he said in February 2016. “So if you ask me from a league standpoint, we would prefer that our All-Stars be distributed around the league rather than having so many All-Stars in one market.”
Those comments proved prescient. And those unintended consequences wound up changing NBA free agency permanently.
The Summer Of Regret
The Golden State Warriors won the NBA title in 2014-15 and then blew a 3-1 series lead in the NBA Finals to the Cleveland Cavaliers the following season. Rather than run back their same core, they traded starting center Andrew Bogut to the Dallas Mavericks to free up enough cap space to sign Kevin Durant in free agency.
The result was one of the most dominant teams in NBA history.
In Durant’s first year in the Bay Area, the Warriors went 67-15 in the regular season before going on one of the greatest playoff runs ever. They swept the Portland Trail Blazers, Utah Jazz and San Antonio Spurs en route to the Finals, and they won the first three games against the Cavaliers before dropping Game 4. The Warriors closed out the series back home in Game 5.
Meanwhile, teams that whiffed on KD were forced to resort to alternative options. Many of them handed out contracts they’d quickly grow to regret.
Hassan Whiteside (Miami Heat), Harrison Barnes (Dallas Mavericks) and Chandler Parsons (Memphis Grizzlies) all signed four-year max contracts. None of them came close to providing positive value on those deals. They weren’t the only questionable signings of the summer, though.
Evan Fournier (five years, $85 million) and Bismack Biyombo (four years, $72 million) put the Orlando Magic in a hole that took years to dig their way out from. The same goes for Luol Deng (four years, $72 million) and Timofey Mozgov (four years, $64 million) with the Los Angeles Lakers. Ian Mahinmi’s four-year, $64 million deal with the Washington Wizards and Joakim Noah’s four-year, $72.6 million contract with the New York Knicks were disastrous, too.
Perhaps teams were banking on the league’s 2017 collective bargaining agreement containing an amnesty clause, which would allow teams to wipe one contract off their cap sheet. While the previous two CBAs did have such a clause, the 2017 CBA—which the two sides agreed to in December 2016—did not.
What it did include, however, was a new “designated veteran player extension”—also known as a “supermax” contract—to help small-market teams retain their stars. It was a direct reaction to Durant leaving the Oklahoma City Thunder to sign with the Warriors.
That wasn’t all. Under the 2011 CBA, extensions could include four total seasons, and a player could receive 107.5% of his previous salary in the first year of his extension. Under the 2017 CBA, extensions could include five total seasons (or six for designated veteran deals), and players could receive up to 120% of their previous salary in the first year of their extension.
That paved the way for more players to sign extensions before they even reached free agency, which began the process of hollowing out free agency as a way to land a star.
Where Did All The Stars Go?
Throughout the 2010s, stars changed hands via free agency on a somewhat regular basis.
LeBron James and Chris Bosh signed with the Miami Heat in 2010. LeBron then went back to Cleveland four years later. Dwight Howard signed with the Houston Rockets in 2013. Gordon Hayward joined the Boston Celtics in 2017. LeBron signed with the Los Angeles Lakers in 2018. And Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Kemba Walker and Jimmy Butler all changed hands in 2019 either via free agency or sign-and-trade.
That type of movement has gone all but extinct ever since.
The New York Knicks signed Jalen Brunson to a four-year, $104 million contract as a free agent in 2022, but Brunson wasn’t an established star at the time. Not even the Knicks could have predicted the leap he’d take upon his arrival in New York.
The Philadelphia 76ers did sign Paul George to a four-year, $211.6 million max contract in free agency two years ago, but that required a unique series of circumstances, including a well-below-market free-agent cap hold for Tyrese Maxey. That’s hardly a replicable strategy, especially in the second-apron era.
Speaking of which, the latest CBA only further exacerbated these issues. While the 2023 CBA didn’t increase the length of extensions, it did increase the amount players could receive as their starting salary. Rather than being limited to 120% of their previous salary, players can now receive up to 140%.
Additionally, the latest CBA introduced a second luxury-tax apron, along with punishing roster-building restrictions for teams that cross that threshold. As a result, teams across the league have become more wary about handing out big-money, long-term deals in free agency, as one mistake has the potential to cripple a franchise.
Free agency has thus become a chicken-or-the-egg dilemma. Due to the higher extension limits, more players are signing extensions before ever becoming free agents. (They’ve learned that they can always force their way out of an undesirable situation later via trade.) Teams thus have less incentive to preserve cap space for free agency since stars aren’t as likely to change hands that way.
Instead, teams have adjusted by making big splashes at the trade deadline that preemptively wipe out the cap space they might have had, which has become known as “pre-agency.”
The Wizards could have entered this offseason with more than $80 million in cap space, but they instead wiped that out by acquiring Anthony Davis and Trae Young ahead of the deadline. The same goes for the Jazz (Jaren Jackson Jr.) and the Los Angeles Clippers (Darius Garland), both of whom took themselves out of the cap-space market with their moves at the trade deadline.
While stars aren’t changing hands as frequently via free agency anymore, teams can still make impactful signings. Look no further than Atlanta Hawks guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who already looks like a steal on the contract that he signed last summer.
But as teams continue to sift through a not-so-top-heavy 2026 free-agent class, they only have to look back 10 years to see why things are the way they are today.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Follow Bryan on Bluesky.