KYIV, UKRAINE – MARCH 18: (——EDITORIAL USE ONLY MANDATORY CREDIT – ‘UKRAINIAN PRESIDENCY / HANDOUT’ – NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS – DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS——) Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (L) meets with U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham (R) in Kyiv, Ukraine on March 18, 2024. (Photo by Ukrainian Presidency/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Anadolu via Getty Images
On July 10, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that some Russian oil refineries had partially halted production due to Ukraine’s recent drone strike campaign against them. Additionally, Reuters reported that “Russian gasoline output fell to a level equivalent to only around 65% of the seasonal average consumption after Ukrainian drone attacks.”
Ukraine’s missile and drone campaign targeting Russia’s energy industry resulted in a degradation of Russia’s economic capacity to continue the war. Russia’s energy sector has been helping the Kremlin stay afloat amid international sanctions and continues to fund Russia’s war through export sales revenue. The recent decline in Russian production will reduce the cash flow, limiting Moscow’s purchasing power for weapons and staffing and paying its high-casualty army to continue fighting.
The Ukrainian success in targeting Russian oil industries has now led some Western elected officials and journalists to speculate that Ukraine can win the war. After four years of fighting, Ukraine has destroyed about half of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, Russia’s “entire active duty tank force [has been] destroyed,” and the Russians have lost billions of dollars’ worth of military equipment.
Despite this, the crucial battle for hearts and minds continues, with some critics arguing that Ukraine cannot win. Some of these experts are entranced by the Russian military power and appear honestly skeptical. Others are rather obviously repeating Russian talking points about the war having been started by the West and the inevitability of a Ukrainian loss to Russia. This latter group spans the political spectrum, but is united in a view of Russian power politics and a cynical, almost paranoid distrust of Western motives.
According to a report published by Foreign Policy, much of the motivation for the isolationist and anti-Western camp, right or left, lies not in vindicating Russia, but in opposing anything America does. Some on the far left are imbued with nostalgia for Soviet power or are intoxicating themselves with stories about the “colonialist” West and the “purity” of the “Global South”, and how the West must be essentially destroyed and replaced. For those on the far right, some see dominance by “great powers” as part of the natural order and also have embraced Russia’s role as a “traditional great power” and a standard-bearer for Christian Orthodoxy, leading them to criticize Ukraine and oppose continued Western, and especially European, support for the invaded underdog. According to the Institute for the Study of War, this cognitive warfare against Ukraine, the United States, and the West at large, is at times directed or manipulated by the Kremlin, often creating algorithm-assisted echo chambers.
Take, for example, reactions surrounding the death of U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, a strong advocate for Ukraine. His sudden passing drew tributes from Ukrainian officials, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who stated that the U.S. Senator was a “true defender of freedom.” In sharp contrast, Ana Kasparian, Armenian-American co-host and executive producer of The Young Turks, reacted to Senator Graham’s death by posting “good riddance” on her social media account. Her show co-creator Cenk Uygur also mocked the Senator’s death.
Kasparian has previously accused NATO of responsibility for the war in Ukraine, claiming that expansionism provoked the Kremlin and that the Western provision of weapons to Ukraine, such as ATACMS, would result in a “dangerous escalation.” Nevertheless, she is also on record claiming that Ukraine has no chance of winning.
Like Kasparian, self-described “reactionary” and founder of the America First Foundation dedicated to “nationalism, Christianity, and traditionalism,” Nick Fuentes, also posted “good riddance” on his own social media account following Graham’s death. Fuentes has previously praised Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, and he has expressed his admiration for Stalin and Hitler. He has previously stated: “Can we get a round of applause for Russia?” Finally, he has called on Russia to “liberate Ukraine.”
Russia does not rely solely on extremists. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace has previously reported that the Russian Federation cultivates relationships with politicians, academics, business leaders, journalists, and other influential figures whose views are considered to carry some mainstream credibility.
Eldar Mamedov is a former Latvian diplomat who served as a senior political adviser in the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee and is now a member of the Pugwash Council and a nonresident fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. Mamedov was previously suspended from his position as an adviser to the Socialists & Democrats group, the second-largest bloc in the European Parliament, amid an investigation into alleged foreign influence in the European Parliament from Qatar and Morocco.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Mamedov has argued that a European proposal for Ukraine to join NATO in the future would “kill any deal to end the war.” Furthermore, he has called for Ukraine to adopt a neutral status without joining Western organizations, and suggested that the war be frozen along the contact line in the Donbas. Finally, he states that the international community should propose concrete economic incentives for Russia to end the war, such as reintegrating the Russian Federation into European markets and renewing the gas trade. He concludes that “strategic stability with Russia must be restored.”
Mamedov has also opposed aid to Ukraine. In a piece last year, he claimed that providing Tomahawk missiles to Kyiv risks “catastrophic escalation” of the war, and that this could possibly lead to “nuclear brinksmanship” (a line of reasoning that places responsibility on the West for the possibility that the Kremlin may use tactical nuclear weapons in a war that Russian President Vladimir Putin himself started).
Some academic experts have repeated similar points. John Mearsheimer, Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, has continuously blamed NATO for the war in Ukraine. In his works, Mearsheimer argues that NATO expansionism led to the Russian invasion. He also believes that it will lead to a “stunning defeat for NATO” and that Russia is “likely to prevail.”
Similarly, Jeffrey Sachs, a professor at Columbia University and former Director of Columbia’s Earth Institute, claimed that the United States and the United Kingdom “talked Ukraine out of” a peace deal with Russia, stating that the war has continued unnecessarily as a result. He has also alleged that sanctions imposed by the international community to punish Russia for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine are “likely to fall short.”
The claims made by Kasparian, Fuentes, Mamedov, Mearsheimer, and Sachs have become a familiar refrain. Most are easily refuted. However, their utility for the Kremlin lies not in their accuracy, but in their reaching the same conclusions despite the very different backgrounds and partisan bents of the media and academic personalities publicizing them.
No one knows how or when Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine will end. Nonetheless, Ukraine has demonstrated that it has been able to hold the world’s second-strongest military at bay and that the Ukrainians will continue to do whatever it takes to defend their homeland against Russian aggression.
When Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, few predicted that the Ukrainians would be able to survive the Russian onslaught. More than four and a half years later, in the face of new evidence on the battlefield, many are at least beginning to rethink their analyses.