SAN ANTONIO, TX -MAY 28: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 of the Oklahoma City Thunder drives against Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs in the second half of Game Six of the NBA Western Conference Finals at Frost Bank Center on May 28, 2026 in San Antonio, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Cortes/Getty Images)
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The NBA MVP is one of the most treasured awards in the league and winning the accolade can change the course of a career. The players at the head of the list have mostly remained the same, but every season brings a new surprise.
Here is the case for each of the following players to win MVP this season and the current betting odds for winning it:
Victory Wembanyama +200
It’s hard to argue with the oddsmakers on this one. Wembanyama jumped to a new level last season with numbers that seem to indicate that he will soon become the face of the league. He won the defensive player of the year award by blocking over 3 shots per game and added a steal on top of that. He took less 3 pointers last season and was able to translate that into more looks at the rim. Any type of look that he’s able to get near the basket is a good one for the 7’4 megastar.
The San Antonio Spurs are projected to have the second most wins in the NBA this season so it’s conceivable that if they finish in first that it could help boost up the narrative that he deserves the award. It oddly feels like destiny for him to win this year as long as he stays healthy.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +350
Gilgeous-Alexander has been a revelation by taking the MVP twice over the past two years. Only three players in NBA history have ever been able to win the trophy three times in a row (Larry Bird, Wilt Chamberlain and Bill Russell). Usually something has to give in order for a player to win multiple times in a row. The statistics have to look a bit different in a certain category or the narrative has to be overwhelming to bite past the voter fatigue. The Thunder hitting the 70 win mark might be the ticket for Gilgeous-Alexander to accomplish the feat.
His efficiency is often off the charts, but maybe he’s able to steal a few more passes or jack up his assist numbers. There’s an avenue for him to repeat because of his regular consistency but it may be tough to grab the award for the third straight year.
Nikola Jokic +550
The Denver Nuggets have been criticized for having an underwhelming offseason, but it may not end up that way for “The Joker”. He has finished every season since 2020 as either the MVP or the runner up, and seems to be in position to be able to steal the spotlight again. Last season his rebounding and assist numbers were so good that he led the league in both categories.
The award may go to the big man if he is able to continue to provide the same level of statistical domination, and the team is able to grab one of the top seeds in the Western Conference. It’s tough to see where he can improve, but maybe the Nuggets catapulting into a top-10 defensive unit can change the perception on Jokic. The team has only placed in the top-10 in defensive rating once since the Serbian entered the NBA in 2015.
Luka Doncic +600
There’s a little bit more spotlight for Doncic to hog now since LeBron James jumped ship to the Philadelphia 76ers in July. Luka’s season felt slightly disappointing last year, but that’s not the reality. He led the league in scoring, field goal attempts, free throws and 3-point attempts all while posting the second best true shooting percentage of his career.
The belief is that the Lakers’ offense should hum, but the easiest route to success for Doncic may look a lot like Jokic’s. Los Angeles has a lot riding on Walker Kessler to lead a defense that has several weak points. A strong defensive rating with some splash plays from Doncic could go a long way toward the Lakers reaching success along with an MVP for the Slovenian’s trophy case.
Giannis Antetokounmpo +1000
Playing on a new team helps form a narrative, especially if Antetokounmpo is able to get off to a hot start with his new team in Miami. Last season, the 31-year-old had struggled staying healthy as he only logged 36 games for the Milwaukee Bucks as they languished at the bottom of the standings.
There were some encouraging signs from the big man. He shot more at the rim than he has ever during his career and sunk 77 percent of those looks. His passing remains elite and will need to continue during his time with Miami as they are lacking playmakers on the roster. Antetokounmpo needs to put up a vintage season to get the Heat back into the playoffs and a third MVP on his mantle.