2026 Tony Noms Reveal Broadway’s IP Bet

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – APRIL 20: The cast of “Schmigadoon” appears onstage during curtain call of “Schmigadoon” Broadway opening night at Nederlander Theatre on April 20, 2026 in New York City. (Photo by Valerie Terranova/WireImage)

WireImage

The 2026 Tony nominations reveal Broadway’s increasing reliance on familiar intellectual properties.

Of the four productions nominated for Best Musical this year, only one, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York), has no basis in existing IP. According to gross data from Playbill, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) is also consistently the lowest-grossing of the Best Musical nominees week-to-week, with capacity numbers averaging between 60% to 70%.

The show is positioned as a David-versus-Goliath contender. But do IP-based productions translate to top Tony award wins?

Last year, two of the five Best Musical nominees were adapted from IP. Though the Best Musical and Best Play winners were original works, three IP-based productions took home awards: jukebox musical Buena Vista Social Club, Death Becomes Her, and Stranger Things: The First Shadow. In the 2020s so far, two of the Best Musical winners are IP-based (Moulin Rouge! The Musical in 2021 and The Outsiders in 2024). The only IP Best Play winner is The Inheritance in 2020. However, IP-based productions have consistently received the most nominations each year.

Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) mirrors the path of last year’s Best Musical winner, Maybe Happy Ending, an original musical that “hemorrhaged money” during previews, according to The New York Times. Positive reviews and word-of-mouth boosted the show to its first million-dollar week in December 2024 and its six Tony award wins in June 2025. Maybe Happy Ending is still running to date and playing to an average of 96.17% filled theaters, according to Playbill data.

While the Tonys are still rewarding originality, Broadway is leaning on nostalgia to survive commercially.

Broadway is still recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic, but there are signs of financial growth. Last year, Broadway grosses surpassed the 2018-2019 season, just before the pandemic.

However, Jason Laks, president of The Broadway League, was less optimistic about these numbers in a statement posted to the organization’s website: “We have to be sober about the challenges Broadway faces. We can’t be satisfied with 2019’s definition of success anymore. With rising costs hitting every facet of production, it is becoming harder and harder to bring live theatre to the stage. Shows today have an ever-shorter window to get on their feet.”

One of the ways that Broadway producers and investors are getting tourists back into theaters is through musicals and plays based on well-known IP – namely, films and pop music catalogues. Not counting revivals, nearly half of the Broadway shows playing right now are either based on or significantly use existing IP. Harry Potter and the Cursed Child (a sequel to the Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows book),

The Lion King (adapted from the 1994 Disney animated film), Moulin Rouge! The Musical (adapted from the 2001 20^th Century Fox movie musical), MJ The Musical (a jukebox musical using the songs of Michael Jackson), Aladdin (adapted from the 1992 Disney animated film), The Lost Boys (a 2026 Tony nominee for Best Musical, adapted from the 1987 Warner Bros. vampire thriller), Dog Day Afternoon (adapted from the 1975 Warner Bros. film), and Stranger Things: The First Shadow (a prequel to the Netflix show) are among the top-selling currently running shows, according to Broadway.com.

This trend isn’t going away anytime soon with upcoming Broadway musicals based on 13 Going on 30, Coco, Crazy Rich Asians, The Devil Wears Prada, Dirty Dancing, The Greatest Showman, National Lampoon’s Vacation, Happy Feet, The Karate Kid, La La Land, Sing Street and Thelma & Louise. The Dolly Parton jukebox musical, which had a TikTok casting call in 2025 to find a star to play Parton, is also in development.

There is still a place for original narratives on the Great White Way. None of this year’s Best Play nominees are adapted from existing IP. This fall, three new original productions are opening on Broadway: Wanted at the James Earl Jones Theatre, Galileo at the Schubert Theatre, and Inter Alia in the Music Box Theatre.

The 2026 Tony Awards will take place on Sunday, June 7, at 8 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+.