A screen grab captured from a video shows Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plane accompanied by four Su-35 fighter jets equipped with missiles during Putin’s journey to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on December 6, 2023 in Moscow, Russia. (Photo by Russian Defense Ministry / Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Anadolu via Getty Images
With indications that President Donald Trump will support lifting the ban on selling F-35 Lightning II stealth strike fighters to Turkey, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has predictably expressed opposition. While a delivery of the fifth-generation combat aircraft to Turkey likely isn’t imminent even if swiftly approved, Russia, meanwhile, seems to have made progress in manufacturing the first batch of 4.5-generation Su-35 Flanker fighters Iran ordered years ago.
“I don’t think they should be given F-35s or engines for their fighter jets,” Netanyahu told Fox News on Monday, adding that such a sale would “upset the balance of power in the Middle East.” The engines he mentioned are General Electric F110s that Turkey has requested to power the initial batch of its homegrown TF Kaan stealth fighter.
Netanyahu was speaking ahead of Trump’s attendance at the NATO summit on Tuesday in Turkey’s capital, Ankara. The New York Times reported Monday that Trump is expected to tell his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, that he is prepared to readmit Turkey into the F-35 program, allowing it to buy these advanced aircraft. After receiving advanced strategic S-400 air defense missile systems in 2019, which Washington repeatedly warned it would not allow the F-35 to operate alongside, Turkey was swiftly suspended from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program and banned from buying any of the stealth jets. Until then, it intended to acquire 100 F-35As to modernize its air force.
At the time, during his first term, Trump openly said it was “not fair” that the U.S. couldn’t sell Turkey the combat aircraft, but sanctions were imposed before he left office. Even if Trump wants to permit Turkey’s reentry into the JSF today, Congress can still block any deal until Ankara takes tangible steps to resolve the S-400 issue, which would likely necessitate removing them altogether from Turkish territory.
The initial F-35s built for Turkey had already rolled off the assembly line when the S-400s arrived in Ankara, triggering the Turkish ban that’s now in its seventh year. The U.S. Air Force bought those undelivered jets a year later. In 2024, Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler remarked that Turkey already had “six F-35s over there.” Guler has also said that if Ankara regains authorization to buy F-35s, it would order 40 F-35As instead of the original 100 it pledged to purchase before 2019.
Netanyahu’s declared opposition follows years of tensions and severely strained relations between Israel and Turkey over a multitude of issues, including the war in Gaza and the future of post-Assad Syria. Israeli officials and media are increasingly arguing that Ankara represents an emergent threat or even a new Iran. Either way, Israel doesn’t want to lose its stealth monopoly over the region to a rival power, or even a country like Saudi Arabia.
At the same time, unconfirmed reports indicate that Russia has completed its first batch of up to 20 Su-35 fighters for Iran that Tehran ordered earlier this decade. A delivery by the end of this year or even 2027 could give Iran a major propaganda boost in the aftermath of the latest and deadliest U.S.-Israeli air campaign against it, which saw large parts of its antiquated air force destroyed. Analysts have already expressed skepticism that Iran can receive the fighters for now, given the damage to its airbase infrastructure. More broadly, pre-war estimates about the delivery timeframe of Iran’s long-awaited Su-35s have often proven premature. Nevertheless, Russia has delivered Yak-130 trainer jets and Mi-28NE Havoc attack helicopters. Incidentally, the first manned enemy aircraft kill by an F-35 of any kind was executed by an Israeli Air Force F-35I Adir against one of Iran’s Yak-130s over Tehran in March during the war.
Citing leaked internal Russian documents, Ukraine’s United24 Media outlet reported in November 2025 that Russia was manufacturing 16 Su-35s for Iran, which it estimated would be completed and delivered by 2027. The subsequent war may impact that delivery date, but probably not the completion of the airframes. Furthermore, that same outlet, again citing classified documents, in March reported on the munitions Russia is expected to supply with these warplanes. These include the Kh-38 and Kh-31 air-to-surface missiles. To combat enemy aircraft, Russia will equip these Flankers with K-73 and K-77 (R-77) air-to-air missiles. The report notably makes no mention of any provision of or request for R-37 long-range air-to-air missiles, which Moscow designed for shooting down enemy tankers and airborne surveillance aircraft.
It has long been evident that this marks the largest acquisition of combat aircraft for Iran since it bought fourth-generation MiG-29A Fulcrum fighter jets and Su-24 Fencer tactical bombers shortly after the lengthy Iran-Iraq War ended in 1988. The Soviet Union similarly provided these jets with R-73s, Kh-29 air-to-surface missiles, R-60 short-range air-to-air missiles, and long-range R-27R/T surface-to-surface missiles, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s arms transfer database.
Those Soviet-era fighters were largely tasked with defending the airspace around Tehran and unsurprisingly failed to hinder Israeli airstrikes against Iran since 2024. And while the Su-35s no doubt mark an upgrade for Iran’s air force, even a timely delivery and induction into service wouldn’t severely hinder any future U.S.-Israeli air offensive. Israel swiftly neutralized the long-range, strategic S-300 PMU-2 air defense missile systems Russia delivered in 2016, the most advanced weaponry Moscow sold to Tehran since those MiG-29s, in its initial 2024 airstrikes.
Aside from having technologically more advanced F-35s, Israel will also undoubtedly boast superior quantities of combat aircraft over Iran. Tehran is estimated to have ordered a total of up to 50 Su-35s. Even if manufactured, delivered, and fielded by the end of this decade, which is extremely unlikely, Israel already operates 48 F-35s with another 52 on order. In other words, if Iran ever gets 50 Su-35s, it won’t be before Israel gets 100 F-35s or close to that. And that’s not taking into account the second squadron of F-15IA jets Israel ordered, which would doubtlessly prove a formidable foe against any Iranian Flankers.
Despite such conventional advantages, it’s worth noting that the incumbent regime in Iran has never sought to match its adversaries with conventional hardware, such as fighter jets and air defense systems. Tehran has long had a preference for building offensive weaponry like ballistic missiles and drones at scale, which it has invested in developing at the expense of its conventional forces, to strike and terrorize its opponents. While the Su-35s will give the air force a long-awaited upgrade, Iran isn’t depending on them as a game-changer in future confrontations with the U.S., Israel, or the Arab Gulf states, which also boast larger and more advanced fighter arsenals.
As for Turkey, despite the heated rhetoric from both sides, Israel and Turkey are probably not going to militarily clash or fight a war against each other anytime soon. And even if Turkey resolves the S-400 impasse and acquires those 40 F-35As, these will take years to build and deliver, and certainly won’t be as advanced as Israel’s exclusive F-35I Adir variant, which is already battle-tested. The same will probably apply to the TF Kaan when it enters service and Turkey eventually develops an indigenous engine for later batches in the next decade.
In other words, even in the best-case scenarios for the future of Turkish and Iranian combat airpower, which are both on radically different trajectories, neither is likely to outmatch Israeli airpower for many more years to come.