Toronto Blue Jays’ Alejandro Kirk celebrates his three-run home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the fourth inning in Game 3 of baseball’s World Series, Monday, Oct. 27, 2025, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
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It’s been a rough, rough November for the Toronto Blue Jays and their fans.
First, and most importantly, they lost a classic seven-game World Series to the Los Angeles Dodgers after taking a 3-2 lead and flying home for Games 6 and 7. Both games were absolute gut punches, in which they had innumerable chances to win and seize the hardware. This was well after an incomprehensible 18-inning Game 3 loss that featured the worst non-Eric Gregg postseason ball-strike call I’ve ever seen – and this one turned into a double play that took the Jays out of a potentially big inning.
Then the series ended and award season began – and threw the Jays a series of snowballs in the face. The Jays were shut out in the individual and team Gold Glove awards, save for late-season acquisition Ty France, who won at 1B largely for his work as a Twin. Manager John Schneider got hosed in the Manager of the Year voting.
Now no one expected a Jay to win the MVP award, and they were represented by George Springer (7th), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (13th) and Bo Bichette (16th) in the final tally. But arguably their best player, C Alejandro Kirk (who unfortunately hit into a DP to end Game 7, after performing brilliantly all postseason) got exactly as many votes as you or I.
About a month back, I posted my hypothetical AL MVP ballot in this space. And right behind Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr. and Cal Raleigh, who finished 1st, 4th and 2nd in the actual voting, was Kirk.
The metric I use evaluate player performance, Total Players Runs Above Average (TPRAA), which I explain in detail in the article linked above, rated Kirk at 40.9 TPRAA, not that far behind 60-homer man Raleigh (46.3 TPRAA). What on earth, you might say. How were those two guys so close – Kirk, after all, hit exactly one quarter as many homers as The Big Dumper, and the down-ballot MVP results in both leagues seemed to suggest that homers are all that matters.
First, while both catchers were fine defenders and runners up behind the Tigers’ Dillon Dingler for the Gold Glove, Kirk was better this season, accruing more defensive value despite catching three fewer games than Raleigh.
Secondly, Raleigh was pretty fortunate on balls in play this season (185 Unadjusted vs. 164 Adjusted Contact Score) while Kirk was quite unlucky (90 vs. 113).
Thirdly, Kirk had a vastly superior K/BB profile (59/48 vs. 188/97 K/BB ratio).
Yes, Raleigh accumulated 199 more plate appearances than Kirk, but was not a dramatically superior offensive player. Raleigh “should have” hit .237-.343-.540 for 143 “Tru” Production+, while Kirk should have batted .298-.365-.489 for 140 “Tru” Production+.
Both were exceptional offensive players – Raleigh a bit better – but got it done in vastly different ways. Both were exceptional defensive players, but Kirk was a tad better. Raleigh did log considerably more playing time (because of his additional DH usage) and that was the largest difference between the two.
Lots of people believe Raleigh was robbed of the MVP award, but absolutely no one is buzzing that Kirk didn’t receive a single vote, and that’s a shame, even if it is ultimately inconsequential.
But I believe there could be a divergence in performance moving forward that will surprise a lot of people. Raleigh has an offensive skill set that is unlikely to age well. He gives away a ton of free outs via the strikeout and the pop up. His 2025 25.2 degree average launch angle is the highest I’ve ever seen for a regular. He’s also an extreme grounder puller from both sides of the plate. His swing is grooved to lift and pull from both sides of the plate, and while he’s at the height of his physical powers, that works for him. Catchers of most stripes don’t age that well with the bat, but Raleigh’s risk/reward profile is historically extreme.
On the other hand, Kirk has a single red flag, and it’s a physical one. He’s heavy, and painfully slow. But he makes tons of contact, doesn’t pop up all that much, and hits the ball hard to all fields across all batted ball types. I like Kirk’s decline phase to be much gentler than Raleigh’s, before you even account for the fact that the Jays’ receiver is two years younger than his Mariner counterpart.
Blue Jay fans need to find solace where they can in these painful times. They may not have been the better team, but they sure played like they were, and my eyes told me they were the most deserving champions. No one knows what the future holds, but the fact that the club has Kirk under control for five years for a total of $58 million is a huge check mark in their favor as they attempt to remain AL contenders.