YEREVAN, ARMENIA – FEBRUARY 9: U.S. Vice President JD Vance (L) shakes hands with Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan as they participate in a joint press conference on February 9, 2026 in Yerevan, Armenia. In the first visit to Armenia of a sitting U.S. vice president, Vance is meeting Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who signed a deal intended to reopen key transportation routes with Azerbaijan. (Photo by Kevin Lamarque-Pool/Getty Images)
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Armenia, a small, landlocked country of 3 million people in the Caucasus and a former Soviet Republic, will go to the polls on June 7. Traditionally a strong ally of Russia, it has recently turned westward and begun applying to join the European Union. Currently, the Civil Contract Party of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, which favors improved relations with the West, is leading in the polls ahead of the election. (Source).
Alarmed, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova confirmed on May 27 that Russia had sent a letter to Armenia stating that if the process of accession to the EU continues, the Russian side would suspend or unilaterally terminate the Agreement on Cooperation in the Supply of Natural Gas, Petroleum and Rough Diamonds.
This could have a massive impact on Armenia. Unlike its neighbor Azerbaijan, Armenia has no significant oil or natural gas deposits and relies on Russia for about 82% of its natural gas. Still, Prime Minister Pashinyan has pursued a pro-Western policy in the aftermath of Armenia’s losses to Azerbaijan in the wars over the Armenia-occupied region of Karabakh in 2020 and 2023, which led to large numbers of ethnic Armenian refugees returning to Armenia. Noting the presence of Russian peacekeepers in the region at that time, Pashinyan has blamed Russia for failing to protect his country and has suspended Armenian participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a regional defense framework headed by Russia.
While Armenia has been smarting from the 2023 loss of Karabakh, Azerbaijan has been gaining diplomatic and strategic ground. In August 2025, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan met in Washington with President Trump and concluded a peace agreement that ended the war, recognized Azerbaijani sovereignty over Karabakh, and established the Trump Route for Peace and Prosperity.
The Trump Administration followed up with a visit by Vice President JD Vance to Armenia and Azerbaijan, signing strategic partnership agreements with both countries. Despite these developments, Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act remains on the books and is subject to annual presidential waivers. This Law, passed in 1992, prohibited direct American assistance to Azerbaijan. It dates back to the first Karabakh conflict and was put in place in response to a blockade imposed by Azerbaijan on Armenia at the time. There was a reason for a blockade – an occupation of Azeri territory, but this is all an ancient history today, when Azerbaijan supplies energy resources and food to Armenia.
Section 907 has been waived numerous times by U.S. presidents since, with President Trump’s most recent waiver occurring amid shifting alliances in the region. (Source).
The possibility of the United States moving ever closer to Azerbaijan and Armenia, while Russia has proved an unreliable ally to Armenia, clearly alarms Moscow and influential pro-Russian Armenian circles especially in diaspora. Moving away from Russia also means Armenia must find a replacement for Russian energy.
American oil and natural gas companies may have opportunities to connect the Armenian gas grid and oil refineries to Azerbaijan. At a Cabinet meeting on May 28, President Trump praised Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. In a Truth Social post, he said that Pashinyan has his “COMPLETE and TOTAL Endorsement for Re-Election.” (Source).
Trump said Secretary of State Marco Rubio has advanced deals between the U.S. and both countries and that he wants to help American energy companies “gain access” to Central Asia.
On Wednesday, May 26, Trump posted: “Soon, the United States and Armenia will break ground together on the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, which will transform the South Caucasus, and help our wonderful American Energy Companies gain access from Central Asia all the way to the United States.” (Source).
Trump’s support is good news for Prime Minister Pashinyan. The latest polls predict a win for him. (Source).
Russia has reacted furiously. On May 30, Russia recalled its ambassador to Armenia for consultations, citing Armenia’s recent moves towards the West. Continuing recent moves to tighten the screws on Armenia economically, Moscow also added “temporary restrictions” on Armenian exports of select fruits and vegetables to the bans it had already imposed on Armenian mineral water, wines, and brandy. President Putin, backed by other member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), began pressuring Yerevan to hold a referendum on whether the country will remain in the EAEU or apply to join the European Union. On June 1, Pashinyan rejected the idea of holding a referendum on the question for now. A Pashinyan victory would further imperil Russia’s standing in Eurasia’s south tier and increase the chances for inroads by American energy companies.
As Vladimir Putin continues to bleed his country in Ukraine, his control over his backyard is fraying. Instead of expanding Russian influence with a quick, decisive takeover of Ukraine, an Armenian move into the Western camp signals that Russian influence is waning among its neighbors, creating opportunities for American diplomats and businesses. Permanently repealing Sec. 907 restrictions would open new business opportunities for American companies in energy, minerals, transportation, and more, consolidating gains the U.S. Administration has worked hard to secure. Surely this is the opposite of what Mr. Putin intended, but such are the fortunes of war.