NEW YORK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 07: Carlos Alcaraz of Spain poses with his trophy after defeating Jannik Sinner of Italy during their Men’s Singles Final match on Day Fifteen of the 2025 US Open at USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center on September 07, 2025 in New York City. (Photo by Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)
Getty Images
Carlos Alcaraz hasn’t played an official singles match since April due to a wrist injury, and the defending U.S. Open champion was handed a tricky drawn on Thursday.
The Spaniard could have to beat several top American players before potentially facing 24-time major champion Novak Djokovic in the semis and French Open champ Alexander Zverev in the final.
The No. 2 seed opens against Russian Roman Safiullin, who is ranked No. 98 in the world and is 1-1 in his career vs. Alcaraz.
Assuming he gets through a couple of rounds, Alcaraz could potentially face No. 15 seed Alexander Bublik or No. 20 American Tommy Paul in the fourth round.
Alcaraz is 1-0 vs. Bublik and 6-2 vs. Paul, but Paul has two wins over Alcaraz on outdoor hardcourts.
“I love Tommy Paul getting through there and that’s the matchup that I think could really test Carlos Alcaraz,” ESPN’s James Blake, a former world No. 4, said on air after the draw came out. “And we can see where is that wrist, where is the fitness how is he feeling because Tommy Paul will push you.
Blake added Paul: “Tommy Paul can play physical. He’s one of the fittest players on tour, he can get to so many balls, he’s one of the best movers, he’s really got an all-around game [and] can do everything. He’s comfortable moving forward. He’s comfortable playing defense, o he can cause Carlos some problems. He can force Carlos to have to play well. He may not overpower him but he can force Carlos to play his best tennis.”
Mary Joe Fernandez also pointed to Paul as a difficult potential opponent for Alcaraz.
“When Alcaraz is at his best, Tommy Paul is one of the guys that stays with him because of that speed, becaues of how well he moves around the court. He is a physical player so I would really be interested if that were to be a matchup in the fourth round.”
In the quarters, Alcaraz could face another American in No. 8 Ben Shelton, who is Patrick McEnroe’s pick to win the title and Blake’s pick to make the final (against No. 12 Rafael Jodar. Shelton does have a tough first round match against No. 56-ranked Tallon Griekspoor of the Netherlands. Griekspoor is coming off a win over No. 1 seed Alexander Zverev in Montreal.
Alcaraz could then meet the Serbian legend Djokovic in what would be a blockbuster semifinal.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 05: Carlos Alcaraz of Spain at the net after defeating Novak Djokovic of Serbia during their Men’s Semifinal match on Day Thirteen of the 2025 US Open at USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center on September 5, 2025 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)
Getty Images
The two men are 5-5 in their careers, including a straight sets win by Alcaraz in last year’s semifinals.
Djokovic, who is still bidding for a record 25th major, lost three major semifinals a year ago to Jannik Sinner and Alcaraz.
“If I’m to lose to someone, I would lose to these two guys,” he said after the Alcaraz defeat in New York. “I know that they are just better at the moment. You just have to hand it to them and say, Well done.”
As for Djokovic this year, he could have a popcorn match in the second round against the winner of the first-round popcorn match between 2016 champion Stan Wawrinka, who was given a Wild Card after initially being denied one, and former Wimbledon finalist Matteo Berrettini.
“[Djokovic] wants to stay as fresh as possible,” Fernandez said. “If he were to make a push to win another major title, these first few rounds are important. The first priority is to win, but the second is try to get off the court as quickly as possible.”
Other potential semifinal opponents for Alcaraz include No. 7 Daniil Medvedev, a former U.S. Open champion, former semifinals Frances Tiafoe and rising American Brandon Nakashima.
In the final, Alcaraz could then potentially have to face Zverev, who broke through to win his first major title in Paris earlier this season.
Alcaraz holds a narrow 7-6 career edge on the German, including a five-set win in this year’s Australian Open semis, where the Spaniard won the career Slam.
Aside from Wawrinka-Berrettini, other first-round popcorn matches on the men’s side include:
No. 8 Ben Shelton vs. Tallon Griekspoor
No. 9 Casper Ruud vs. Juan Manuel Cerundolo
No. 23 Andrey Rublev vs. Marin Cilic
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. No. 10 Arthur Fils
No. 13 Lorenzo Musetti vs. Arthur Fery
No. 11 Frances Tiafoe vs. Martin Damm Jr.