Topline
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission will outline new rules allowing it to block certain bets on online prediction markets, the Wall Street Journal reported, after concerns about insider trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket and wagers on sensitive issues, including wars.
The new rules could impact the types of bets users are allowed to place on platforms like Kalshi or Polymarket.
Copyright 2026 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
Key Facts
According to the Journal, the proposed rules will allow the agency to ban wagers considered not in the public interest or prone to manipulation because of insider information.
Under the rules, nearly all wagers linked to wars, terror attacks and assassinations are likely to be banned for failing the public interest threshold, the report added.
Bets on things like sports injuries and specific minor events in a game that could be subject to manipulation—or so-called “spot-fixing”—could also be banned.
The report notes the rules won’t crack down on broader bets on sporting events on online prediction markets, despite several states mounting legal challenges against this or even outright attempting to ban such platforms.
Tangent
The CFTC has already shared some guidelines with online betting platforms, according to the Journal. On Tuesday, Kalshi announced three new so-called “market integrity” measures for its platform to crack down on insider bets—including risk scoring, employment verification for some bettors and expanded whistleblower tools. The platform said it will provide a “risk score” for bets that have “heightened insider trading or manipulation risk.” The risk measurement will involve various metrics, including whether there are any national security concerns or potential regulatory issues. The risk scoring will also measure instances in which actions by a single person or a small “opaque group” could significantly affect the market. If a bet meets a certain risk-scoring threshold, participants will need to share employment verification details, allowing Kalshi to screen bettors for potential insider activity. The platform will also allow its bettors to report potential abusive behavior or market manipulation, which will then be examined by a 24/7 surveillance team, Kalshi said.
What Do We Know About Recent Insider Betting Cases?
In April, a U.S. Special Forces soldier involved in a raid to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was charged with using classified information to win more than $400,000 on Polymarket. The DOJ said the soldier was charged with unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain. The soldier made 13 bets on Maduro- and Venezuela-related markets in late December last year, just days before the raid, and as a result, he profited approximately $409,881 after the Venezuelan leader’s capture. In a separate incident in late April, Kalshi announced it had suspended the accounts of three political candidates who placed bets on the outcome of their own election races. Late last month, federal prosecutors charged a Google employee after he allegedly earned $1.2 million from bets on Polymarket using insider information. The prosecutors alleged that the Google staffer used insider information about Google’s Year in Search data to make the winning bets—specifically that singer D4vd would be named the top-most searched person of 2025.
further reading
Trump Regulator Proposes New Rules on What’s Allowed on Prediction Markets (Wall Street Journal)