Topline
A Democratic candidate is looking to pull off the party’s first win in Miami’s mayoral election this century as voters go to the polls today in a runoff election—in what would be a notable shift afterPresident Donald Trump made his own history last year with a double-digit win in Miami-Dade County.
Eileen Higgins, the Democratic Miami mayoral candidate was the clear frontrunner in the first round of voting in November.
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Key Facts
Eileen Higgins, the former Miami-Dade County commissioner, won 35.9% of the vote in November—about 16 points ahead of Republican former city manager Emilio Gonzalez, who Trump endorsed in November.
Miami’s mayoral election allows multiple candidates to run in the crowded first round, and another Democratic candidate, former Miami city commissioner Ken Russell, finished in third place with about 17.5% of the vote, according to the city’s official election results.
Higgins and Gonzalez will face off again in the runoff election Tuesday night.
If Higgins pulls off a victory on Tuesday night, she would become the first Democrat elected to the mayoralty since 1997.
Why Is Miami’s Mayoral Race Important?
The city of Miami and the broader Miami-Dade County are important territory for Trump’s winning coalition of voters in 2024, and Tuesday’s election could serve as a bellwether to indicate the GOP’s prospects in the 2026 midterm elections. Miami is home to one of the largest Cuban American populations in the country, and Trump notably overperformed with Hispanic voters in the 2024 presidential election, losing the vote to Democratic nominee Kamala Harris by only three percentage points among the demographic, according to Pew Research’s data. He previously lost the demographic group by 38 points to Hillary Clinton in 2016 and by 25 points to former President Joe Biden in 2020. Trump also became the first Republican presidential nominee to win Miami-Dade County since former President George H.W. Bush in 1988. The president has steadily improved his popularity in the region over the last three presidential elections—he lost Miami-Dade County to Clinton by 30 points in 2016, and again to Biden by 7.3 percentage points in 2020. He nearly reversed these results in 2024, winning Miami-Dade County with 55.4% of the vote, ahead of Harris’ 43.9%.