The downward revision is attributed to a general economic downturn and fiscal relief adopted by the government
Germany’s tax income is projected to drop by billions of euros over the next four years, according to figures released by the country’s Council of Economic Experts earlier this week. The forecast cut reflects the economy’s sluggish performance and a major tax relief package included in the federal government’s budget bill.
The federal government alone is expected to collect €33.3 billion ($37.3 billion) less in tax revenue over the five years through 2029, according to estimates published on Thursday. This year, tax income is projected to fall €600 million short of previous expectations, with a significantly larger shortfall of €10.2 billion anticipated in 2026. A slight improvement in tax revenues is expected from 2027 onward.
Overall, tax revenues are forecast to fall short by an average of around €16 billion annually compared to the October 2024 estimate, the Finance Ministry said in a statement, adding that the federal government is expected to face an average annual shortfall of about €7 billion.
“The economy remains in turbulent waters,” Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil said in response to the updated outlook, stressing that boosting revenues through higher economic growth “is the only way to gain new financial leeway.”
Klingbeil, who also serves as vice chancellor, acknowledged that the latest revenue figures will complicate efforts to finalize the new government’s budgets for this year and next.
The federal government ran out of time to pass the 2025 budget after former Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition collapsed in November 2024, forcing the country to operate under a provisional budget since the beginning of the year.
Earlier this week, Klingbeil announced that a revised version of the 2025 draft budget would be presented for cabinet approval by the end of June. The bill will include tax relief for companies to spur growth and legislation to establish a €500 billion infrastructure fund. The draft 2026 budget is expected to follow soon after.
Germany is the only G7 economy to register no growth over the past two years, making the revival of its sluggish economy a top priority for the new government. According to the International Monetary Fund, Germany is projected to remain at the bottom of the G7 in 2025, with just 0.1% growth.
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