Ian Happ can muscle up for a home run tonight.
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The MLB best home run bets got back in the winner’s circle on Friday night. While Jackson Chourio didn’t go deep and added salt to the wound by homering twice on Saturday and once on Sunday, Bryce Eldridge hit a home run at +551 odds.
The long-shot nature of home run bets makes it difficult to rack up successful wagers, leaving the season’s ledger at 11-40, with three no-bets for players who didn’t start on the night their home run prop was suggested.
Still, since home runs are hard to hit, and the wagers are long-shot bets, the odds are long, too. Taking a careful and calculated approach to picking home run bets can turn a tidy profit, as evidenced by the MLB best home run bets yielding a profit of $704 for anyone who has bet each suggested one at the listed odds.
A switch-hitting outfielder with favorable hitting conditions has a good opportunity to hit a home run tonight. In addition, a left-handed slugger among MLB’s home run leaders also has a great chance to homer tonight.
MLB Best Home Run Bets
Ian Happ (Chicago Cubs – OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+344) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Ian Happ is on pace for a career year in home runs, swatting 16 through 68 games and 300 plate appearances this year, putting him on pace to hit 30 homers for the first time in a season in his career. Happ has a few career-high marks in his profile this year, namely his barrel rate (15.0%) and his fly-ball rate (47.5%). In addition, he is logging his second-highest pull rate (44.4%), and his 21.1% home run per fly-ball rate (HR/FB) is his highest since 2021 while he’s also hitting more fly balls.
Happ’s overall batted-ball profile is stellar. Among 254 qualified batters this year, Happ is tied for 56th in barrels per plate appearance rate (8.0%), tied for 23rd in barrels per batted-ball event rate (15.0%), 60th in hard-hit rate (46.3%), tied for 42nd in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (95.6 mph), tied for 84th in maximum exit velocity (111.5 mph) and 132nd in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (33.8%).
Happ has a sweet matchup and favorable hitting conditions tonight. Michael Lorenzen’s 1.51 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) this year is the seventh-highest mark among tonight’s probable starters. The veteran right-handed hurler has also allowed 1.73 HR/9 to 461 left-handed batters since last season.
Happ’s chances to hit a home run tonight are also amplified by playing at home. Wrigley Field’s 110 park factor for home runs since last year is the 11th-highest mark. The weather will also be favorable, with winds blowing out at 10 mph. Happ should give the home crowd something to cheer about with a home run tonight.
Yordan Alvarez is tied for first in MLB in home runs this year.
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Yordan Alvarez (Houston Astros – OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+283) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Yordan Alvarez is tied for first in MLB in home runs this year with 24. Alvarez has hit 16 of his 24 home runs this year in 226 plate appearances against righties, 11 in 149 plate appearances at home and seven in 113 plate appearances at home against righties.
The 28-year-old slugger’s batted-ball profile is dreamy. Among 254 qualified hitters this year, Alvarez is fourth in barrels per plate appearance rate (12.1%), eighth in barrels per batted-ball event rate (18.2%), tied for 12th in hard-hit rate (52.6%), 21st in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (96.7 mph), second in maximum exit velocity (117.8 mph) and first in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (46.4%).
Alvarez has a desirable matchup tonight. Troy Melton’s 1.75 HR/9 is the fifth-highest mark among tonight’s probable starters. After avoiding a home run in his first two starts this year, Melton has ceded one and four homers in two subsequent starts. In his career, Melton has allowed eight homers at 1.73 HR/9 to 163 left-handed batters.
In addition to getting a lift from his matchup, Alvarez’s likelihood to hit a home run will get a pick-me-up from playing at home. Daikin Park’s 114 park factor for home runs since last year is the eighth-highest mark. Alvarez can break out of his tie for the MLB lead for home runs and sit atop the heap by himself after hitting a home run tonight.