Carter Jensen has a plus matchup against Zack Littell today.
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Monday’s MLB best home run bets provided a pair of losers. The season’s MLB best home run bets sit at an 11-42 record, with three no-bets for players who didn’t start on the night their home run props were touted.
The record might seem poor, but it speaks to the difficulty of selecting winning home run bets and why they’re priced at long odds. They’re long-shot bets. Gamblers should be mentally prepared for cold streaks on home run props.
At the same time, cashing even a few home run bets can lead to a profit. Anyone who has bet $100 on all of the suggested home run bets this year at the listed odds is up $504. A young slugger in a plus matchup and a veteran first baseman with the platoon advantage and a rock-solid matchup have eye-catching home run props, and they can add to this year’s profits with home runs today.
MLB Best Home Run Bets
Carter Jensen (Kansas City Royals – C)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+353) at theScore Bet
Carter Jensen isn’t a bulletproof hitter, with a 28.8% strikeout rate this season. Still, Jensen has pop, swatting eight home runs with a 20.0-degree launch angle, 49.0% fly-ball rate, 10.5% home run per fly-ball rate (HR/FB) and 40.0% pull rate in 67 games and 250 plate appearances in 2026. Jensen hunts flyballs and taps into pulling it.
The youngster’s batted-ball profile isn’t pristine, but it’s above average in many regards and has a few eye-catching marks. Among 255 qualified hitters in 2026, Jensen is tied for 33rd in maximum exit velocity (113.7 mph), and his 20.0-degree launch angle is the 24th steepest.
Jensen has an ideal matchup today, against a pitcher unlikely to exploit his strikeout issues who is also homer-prone. Zack Littell’s 2.18 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) in 14 appearances (10 starts) this year is the second-highest mark among today’s probable starters.
Littell has allowed at least one home run in eight of his appearances this year, including coughing up multiple homers in five games. Littell has surrendered 13 homers of the 21 he’s allowed this year to 159 left-handed batters.
If Jensen doesn’t homer against Littell, he can conceivably go deep against Washington’s bullpen. Nationals’ relievers are tied for the fourth-highest home runs allowed per nine innings (1.30) this season.
In addition, the ballpark favors will work in Jensen’s favor for hitting a home run today. Nationals Park has a park factor of 105 for homers since 2025. Jensen should muscle up for a home run today.
Paul Goldschmidt hit a home run yesterday and can do so again today.
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Paul Goldschmidt (New York Yankees – 1B)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+470) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Paul Goldschmidt hit a home run yesterday, running his season total to 10 in 46 games and 180 plate appearances this season. The veteran first baseman is having a resurgent season at the plate, sporting his highest barrel rate (11.1%) since 2023 and his steepest launch angle (16.1 degrees) since 2021.
Goldy’s batted-ball profile is stellar. Among 255 qualified batters this year, he is tied for 53rd in barrels per plate appearance rate (8.0%), 76th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (11.1%), tied for 81st in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (94.3 mph) and tied for 59th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (37.3%).
The 38-year-old righty also still packs a punch with the platoon advantage. Goldschmidt has belted 17 home runs in 407 plate appearances against left-handed pitching since 2024.
His matchup against Anthony Kay and Chicago’s bullpen is a plus. Kay has allowed 10 home runs at 1.36 HR/9 in 14 appearances (12 starts) this season. The southpaw has allowed nine home runs at 1.66 HR/9 to 228 right-handed batters this year. Additionally, the relievers for the White Sox have allowed 1.12 HR/9, the ninth-highest mark this year.
Finally, playing at home should help Goldschmidt hit a home run tonight. Yankee Stadium’s 115 park factor for homers since 2025 is tied for MLB’s fifth-highest mark.