Bryce Eldridge has top-shelf power.
Getty Images
The MLB best home run bets are 10-38 this season, with two no-bets for players who didn’t start on the days their home run props were touted. The betting record for home run bets is unimpressive, but that’s the nature of making long-shot bets.
Even nailing home run props at a low rate can turn a tidy profit if the bets are carefully selected, though. As a result, the MLB best home run bets this season have yielded a $353 profit for anyone who’s wagered $100 on each of the suggested home run props at the listed odds.
Tonight’s most alluring home run props belong to two young left-handed batters. Both have favorable hitting conditions and the requisite power to make their home run bets winners, and both props are listed at longer than +450 odds.
MLB Best Home Run Bets
Bryce Eldridge (San Francisco Giants – 1B)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+475) at theScore Bet
Bryce Eldridge has substantial power, earning present game power and raw power grades of 50 and 70, respectively, on the 20-to-80 scouting scale, with future grades of 70 and 80. Eldridge hit 25 homers in 102 games and 433 plate appearances in the upper minors last year, and he smashed five home runs in 30 games and 137 plate appearances in Triple-A this season. Eldridge has also muscled up for two home runs in 21 games and 76 plate appearances for the Giants.
Both of Eldridge’s home runs this season have come in 64 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. The left-handed-hitting Eldridge also has quality batted-ball data.
Among 425 batters with at least 25 batted-ball events this year, Eldridge is 75th in barrels per plate appearance rate (7.9%), tied for 67th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (12.5%), fifth in hard-hit rate (58.3%), tied for 30th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (96.7 mph), tied for 45th in maximum exit velocity (113.4 mph), tied for 97th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (37.5%) and has a 15.4-degree launch angle.
Eldridge has a favorable matchup and even better park factors and weather working in his favor today. Edward Cabrera didn’t allow a home run in his first four starts and has coughed up eight in six subsequent starts, ceding multiple homers in three of those turns. Cabrera has also allowed 14 home runs to 441 left-handed batters faced since last season.
In addition, Wrigley Field has a park factor of 109 for homers since last year, tying for the 10th-highest mark. The park factors account for games with the wind blowing out and in, so it’s not exactly double-counting to note today’s weather conditions. The winds are projected to gust out to center field today, which gives all the hitters in this contest an enhanced chance to reach the seats. Eldridge has the top-shelf power to make the most of the windy conditions and smash a home run today.
JJ Wetherholt can reach double-digit homers for the year in a plus matchup tonight.
Getty Images
JJ Wetherholt (St. Louis Cardinals – 2B)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+458) at DraftKings Sportsbook
JJ Wetherholt broke camp with the Cardinals, and he hasn’t been overwhelmed in his rookie campaign. Instead, he’s been an above-average hitter. Wetherholt has hit nine home runs in 58 games and 266 plate appearances this year as part of a well-rounded profile, but the home runs are what matter for his home run prop.
Wetherholt has hit seven of his nine home runs in 179 plate appearances against righties, six of them in 135 plate appearances at home and four of them in 87 plate appearances against righties at home. The left-handed-hitting infielder has made the most of the platoon advantage and done his best work for homers at home.
Wetherholt also has decent batted-ball data. Among 257 qualified batters in 2026, Wetherholt is tied for 133rd in barrels per plate appearance rate (5.3%), tied for 140th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (7.7%), 39th in hard-hit rate (48.4%), tied for 45th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (95.4 mph), tied for 81st in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (36.3%) and has a 16.1-degree launch angle. The rookie infielder hasn’t done the best job of barreling the ball up, but he’s hit it hard, and he’s done a good job of lifting the ball.
Wetherholt’s batted-ball tendencies should result in a home run in a mouthwatering matchup today. Brady Singer’s 2.82 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) are the most among today’s probable starters. Singer has allowed 16 homers in 11 starts this year, ceding at least one in nine starts and coughing up multiple homers in five starts, all of those multi-homer games coming in his past six starts, including three in a row.
The righty hurler has also struggled mightily with the platoon disadvantage. The 552 left-handed batters who’ve faced Singer since last year have popped 25 home runs. Wetherholt is one of MLB’s premier home run hitters, but his +458 odds to hit a home run are too good to pass up against homer-prone Singer.