Topline
An anonymous user has placed a $400,000 wager on the crypto betting platform Polymarket, predicting that Vladimir Putin will not be Russia’s president at the end of 2026, amid growing scrutiny of potential insider bets and wagers on geopolitical events like wars on online prediction platforms.
In this pool photograph distributed by the Russian state agency Sputnik, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin meets with the Kursk region governor in Moscow.
POOL/AFP via Getty Images
Key Facts
The bet, first reported by NBC News, was made by an anonymous Polymarket account, with the username ZnotluvuiSamez and a display picture showing the Ukrainian flag.
The user has made multiple bets involving Russia and Ukraine, but his biggest by far is $409,000 worth of “Yes” contracts on the question “Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?”—$50,000 of which was bought early on Thursday morning.
The user’s bet is heavily against the market as bookmakers believe there’s only a 12% chance of Putin losing the Russian presidency—even though he is not up for reelection until 2030.
According to NBC News, the mystery bettor could rake in as much as $2.5 million if the bet resolves in their favor.
The user’s second-largest bet is a $61,000 wager that Ukraine will recapture Crimea by the end of the year, an outcome the market believes has only a 12% chance of occurring.
The mystery bettor appears to have joined Polymarket in April this year, and his account is linked to an X account with no posts.
What Do We Know About The CFTC’s Proposal On Banning Certain Bets?
Last month, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission opened a set of proposed rules on regulating online prediction markets to public comment. The proposal seeks to ban wagers deemed not in the public interest or prone to manipulation through insider information. This is expected to affect bets linked to wars, terror attacks and assassinations. The proposals have not yet been enacted and it’s unclear if the Putin bet would fall under this public interest ban.
What Do We Know About Political Insider Betting Cases?
In April, a U.S. Special Forces soldier involved in a raid to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was charged with using classified information to win more than $400,000 on Polymarket. The DOJ said the soldier was charged with unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain. The soldier made 13 bets on Maduro- and Venezuela-related markets in late December last year, just days before the raid, and as a result, he earned approximately $409,881. In a separate incident in late April, Kalshi announced it had suspended the accounts of three political candidates who placed bets on the outcome of their own election races.
further reading
Big Polymarket bets have been placed on Putin’s downfall (NBC News)
CFTC Will Propose Banning Some Bets On Online Prediction Markets, Report Says (Forbes)