Armenian leader Nikol Pashinyan won a crucial election that could change the entire region (Photo by Sergei GAPON / AFP) (Photo by SERGEI GAPON/AFP via Getty Images)
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You shouldn’t be surprised by the amount of international news coverage given to the recent Armenian national elections. It was a potentially pivotal event on many levels, certainly geo-strategically. Not unlike the elections in Hungary, the possible domino effect could spell big changes for the region and the world. Armenia’s incumbent pro-west Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, won with just short of half the vote, over %49. Enough to gain control of the government but not enough to secure the necessary supermajority for the major Constitutional redrafts he needs to make to fulfill his electoral promises.
Why does any of it matter to the rest of us? To begin with, Moscow unleashed its full propaganda power to oppose Pashinyan, incessant disinformation, bot farms, dark money, mass return of pro-Russian emigres – and explicit threats by Putin, “we are currently living through everything that is happening in respect of Ukraine,,,And how did it start? It started with Ukraine joining or wanting to join the European Union”. In other words, if Armenia allied westwards rather than remain under Russia’s control, it would suffer the same fate as Ukraine. Despite all the pressure, and the presence of Russian bases in the country, the populace voted towards a direction away from Moscow.
Here, then, is the first geo-strategic lesson of the election. Unlike the one in nearby Georgia in late 2012, the vote wasn’t won by a pro-Moscow oligarch – that same oligarch still runs Georgia with Russian money – despite all comparable info warfare and bludgeoning threats of conflict and destruction. The world and the region has learned after 14 years how to discount Moscow’s interference. Witness the political defenestration of Orban in Hungary. It has taken this long but the tide does seem to be turning. Ironically, the debacle in Ukraine and Putin’s weakening hand likely worked against the Kremlin’s threats.
Had Europe remained as indecisive as before, Armenians would not have put their trust in support from there. But Europe is palpably helping Ukraine resist Putin. That gives Armenians courage. Beyond that, of course, there are other, even stronger considerations. Above all, Armenians see that Donald Trump (rather improbably) has their back, loudly and explicitly. He endorsed the winning candidate: Pashinyan “has my COMPLETE and TOTAL Endorsement for Re-Election on June 7, 2026. With Nikol’s help, we will bring the United States, Armenia, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia to greater heights than ever before. Make (Armenia) Great Again.”
Which brings us to the second massive geopolitical implication of the election outcome. Armenia is not just turning away from Moscow (while still staying friendly) but moving towards detente with its hitherto greatest enemies, Azerbaijan and Turkey – an extraordinary posture considering Armenia lost the 2023 Nagorno-Karabakh war against the former aided by the latter resulting in 100k displaced Armenians. But it was in that war that Moscow failed to help defend Armenia and triggered the alienation of its citizens. As President Trump’s quote above indicates, this realignment bodes change not just in the Caucasus but all the way across Central Asia.
All those countries hitherto landlocked into dependence on their trade going via Russia suddenly have an alternate route to the world via Azerbaijan and Turkey. Their other alternatives were China and Iran. Hold on to that thought. It was Trump who accelerated the formation of this alternative route by presiding over the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty to create the so-called TRIPP (Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity). Essentially by guaranteeing Armenia’s security in place of Russia.
Now why would President Trump empower the liberation of Moscow’s former colonies? Answer – because of Iran. It was the duo of Russia and Iran that bottled up Central Asia’s trade routes geographically and benefited from their transit dues. Now, suddenly, because Armenia has helped create the new corridor in tandem with Azerbaijan and Turkey, the wealth and growth of those former colonies have alternative options for trading with the world. Already Kazakh oil has used the route via trucks. Soon pipelines will follow. Equally, Russian punishment of Armenia via embargoes on trade simply don’t carry the bite.
But back to Iran. And the entire Caucasus. Once the region becomes accessible to American and western investment and prosperity, Iran’s own integrity gets threatened. Here is a short report on how Azeri oil will use the alternate corridor and also act as a conduit for Kazakh oil out to the world. As Iran’s own Azerbaijan province sees its cousins prosper across the border in Azerbaijan proper, the pull of secession will increase. That possibility will distract Iran from its focus southward toward the middle east, which is why Israel has supported Baku all these years – exactly to create that threat. Indeed, the flow of Kazakh and Azeri oil via Armenia and Türkiye will furnish an alternative to Hormuz, thereby neutering Iran’s biggest geopolitical lever.
Beyond that, a region prospering away from Moscow and Tehran will put pressure on hitherto solidly pro-Putin zones like Georgia and Chechnya. Hitherto, Tbilisi has remained out of the tensions created by the Ukraine war as its de facto ruler, Bidzina Ivanishvili, has deployed his Russian-sourced funds to keep the country on Moscow’s side. But Russian money is thin on the ground these days. As for Chechnya, Moscow ended two Chechen wars by obliterating the country’s capital with air power and installing an allied regime. But the Kremlin’s military resources are so diminished by Ukraine that it can hardly control any future Chechen instability.
There are spoilers in this anti-Russia scenario, of course. For one thing, Pashinyan needed a supermajority to overcome the existing Constitutional mandates standing in the way of detente – mandates that require the return of lands disputed between Armenia and Azerbaijan, for example. Every practical step he takes in that direction he will be dogged by Russian-backed propaganda that he’s selling out the country and its security. Already the Kremlin is blasting Armenia’s internet with assertions that Pashinyan actually lost the election. Nor is the world quite fully impervious to such campaigns as witness the victory of a pro-Putin populist in the Bulgarian national elections of April. The new leader in Sofia, Rumen Radev, has just stopped all Bulgarian military aid to Ukraine. Plus while Israel is fully behind Baku, it has acute problems with Erdogan’s anti-Israel policies and could act as a spoiler.
Nevertheless, Pashinyan now has formidable regional support with trillions at stake for his neighborhood and beyond. Much of it depends on the President of the United States following through.