Topline
An online sports bettor who wagered $1 million that Spain would beat Cape Verde in the island nation’s first-ever World Cup match—a bet with 92% odds when it was placed—is out the massive sum after Cape Verde managed a shocking draw Monday.
Steven Moreira #22 of Cabo Verde reacts after the 0-0 draw against Spani on June 15, 2026 in Atlanta.
FIFA via Getty Images
Key Facts
Prediction market site Polymarket reported shortly before the game started in Atlanta that someone put more than $999,000 on Spain to win the match.
Spain, one of the World Cup favorites, was far and away the predicted winner of the game against No. 67-ranked Cape Verde and, if Spain had managed to come out on top, the Polymarket bettor would have pocketed $85,943.48.
But the Cape Verdeans fought their way to an improbable 0-0 draw against the No. 2 team in the FIFA rankings in by far the most shocking result of the World Cup so far.
CONTRA
Another Polymarket bettor is having a much different day. A bettor with the username “fishalive” bet $400,000 that Spain wouldn’t win—and cashed out at $4.7 million.
BIG NUMBER
9%. Those were the odds the winning Polymarket bettor played on the way to his $4.7 million payday.
KEY BACKGROUND
Massive upsets are part of the tournament’s legacy, and this year’s is the first World Cup taking place when a clear majority of the U.S. population has legal access to sports betting. Research firm Eilers & Krejcik Gaming estimates $4.4 billion will be wagered in the U.S. alone, up from $1.8 billion during the 2022 tournament. Dan Singer, head of McKinsey & Company’s Sports and Gaming practice, told the New York Times the amount of money being wagered could reach the level of “eight to 10 Super Bowls.” The Cape Verde game was the most shocking, but 1-1 draws between Qatar and Switzerland, and Morocco and Brazil, have also come as surprises at this year’s World Cup.