Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum brought an NBA championship to Boston, but their massive salaries were incompatible with long-term success, so Brown got shipped off to Philly. The same could happen in MLB if a salary cap is instituted. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images)
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Last week the Boston Celtics traded star Jaylen Brown to their rival Philadelphia 76ers in return for Paul George, two first-round picks, and two second-round picks in upcoming years. There are myriad reasons why Boston felt the need to move the former Finals MVP, but a main one was money. Three years ago the NBA instituted a new salary cap structure that introduced “aprons” with respect to spending. Teams that go beyond the aprons are not just penalized in dollars, but in draft picks, access to free agents, limitations with respect to trades, and more.
Next season, both the 29-year old Brown and the 36-year old George are due $57.74 million. So there is no savings for Boston in year one. But in 2027-28, Brown is owed $61.67 million and George has a player option for $56.59 million. Assuming George opts-in, the Celtics still save more than $5 million. And in 2028-29, George will be a free agent while the then 32-year old Brown will be entitled to $65.6 million. That will now be Philadelphia’s problem – assuming Brown doesn’t demand and get a trade beforehand*.
*The whole issue of “player empowerment” and teams kowtowing to their demands is a whole other issue in the NBA that could creep into MLB in the future.
Boston signed Brown to his five-year, $304 million contract back in 2023. A year later, the team signed Jayson Tatum to a very similar deal: five years, $314 million. Tatum’s contract will take him through his age-31 season, and the Celtics apparently didn’t want two players in their thirties combined receiving more than $60 million per season. The current NBA salary cap is roughly $200 million, with the first apron set at $209 million, and the second apron at $222 million. For a robust understanding of the implications of surpassing the aprons, read this piece by Danny Léroux in The Athletic.
Salary Cap In Baseball
What the Celtics confronted foreshadows what could happen to Major League Baseball if the owners get their long-desired salary cap. Baseball has always been a regional sport, where generations of fans flock to their local ballpark and cheer on their local heroes. And while it is true that since the advent of free agency in the ‘70s, there has been great player movement keeping fans from rooting for the same guys year after year like they did in the era of the “reserve clause,” there is still a greater connection between player and fan in baseball. Maybe it is the proximity that spring training provides; maybe it is the 162-game season that serves as the television background from spring through fall; maybe it is the accessibility (less so in recent years) for an entire family to take in a game. Whatever the answer, baseball has always been different. The owners seemingly want that to change.
Once a hard salary cap is instituted, players will be required to (a) sign lesser contracts and/or (b) constantly be on the move. The idea of an “expiring contract” is a team asset in the NBA, but is viewed as a detriment in MLB, as the acquiring team is getting just one post-season run in exchange for a slew of prospects.
The players know that option (a) above is always in play, which is one of the main reasons they have fought tooth and nail against a salary cap for more than 30 years. But it is (b) that will really tear at the fabric of the game.
Much was made of the Philadelphia Phillies “running it back” this year with the same group of aging veterans trying to win their first World Series since 2008. But would they have been so willing to do so in a hard cap world where the penalties are more than money and could affect the team long-term?
If forced to confront a salary cap, would the Phillies have looked to cut ties with Bryce Harper who the owner claimed was no longer “elite”? How would they feel about Trey Turner’s below-average defense and seemingly wilting bat at $27.3 million per year for the next seven years (after 2026)? It seems reasonable to assume that they would not have re-signed J.T. Realmuto at $15 million per for three years. The front office definitely would have thought long and hard about proffering contracts to Alex Bohm ($10.2 million) and Bryson Stott ($5.9 million) to avoid arbitration. Phillies fans wouldn’t want any of these players to leave town, but in a world governed by a cap, the team would likely eat some salary to move Turner and bring up top prospect Aidan Miller to play shortstop. And it wouldn’t have been a shock to see Bohm or Stott let go to allow Aroon Escobar have a shot in the infield. Even signing Kyle Schwarber at $30 million per season may have been a bridge too far with the money already committed to Harper and their starting pitchers.
Hard Decisions
Said differently, with an MLB salary cap, President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski may have been facing the same conundrum as Celtics President of Basketball Operations Brad Stevens, and been forced to make an exceedingly difficult decision that would have crushed the fanbase and caused him to be crushed in the local media. It wouldn’t be because he is bad at his job; it would be because the economics of the game forced his hand. Front offices are charged with two often competing objectives: win now and build the team for long-term sustained success. Sometimes they have to sacrifice today to prepare for tomorrow. It is not fair, or right, or easy to understand. It is just life under a salary cap.
One other consequence of the salary cap – and concomitant salary floor – is that teams in the lower-half of payroll spending may find themselves as the dumping ground for some of these overpriced/underperforming contracts, just so they spend enough to avoid penalties on the other side. So, imagine Trey Turner going back to Washington or Giancarlo Stanton going back to Miami or Trevor Story going back to Colorado – all of which could happen if teams need to shed or add salary to comply with the draconian rules imposed by a precedent-setting CBA.