The Opening Odds Show A Good Chance To Make Money

ARLINGTON, TEXAS – NOVEMBER 15: (L-R) Mike Tyson and Jake Paul fight during LIVE On Netflix: Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson at AT&T Stadium on November 15, 2024 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images for Netflix © 2024)

Getty Images for Netflix © 2024

Jake Paul has a new opponent – and it’s, by far, the most dangerous move of his boxing career. And even though the betting odds for the Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua fight aren’t as wide as boxing observers might think, there will still be opportunities for bettors to make money on the December 19 event in Miami.

Paul was slated to fight former 130- and current 135-pound world titlist Gervonta Davis in an exhibition, but after Davis fell into more legal trouble, that bout was canceled and Paul had to pivot. Paul landed on Joshua, a two-time heavyweight champion who usually weighs somewhere between 240-255 pounds for his bouts. While Joshua’s record of 28-4 (25 KOs) has taken a beaten in the past few years (he’s gone 4-3 since 2021), he still has devastating one-punch knockout power. And while Paul (12-1, 7 KOs) seemingly has a solid chin, he hasn’t fought anybody close to the caliber of Joshua.

“Jake or anyone can get this work. No mercy,” Joshua said. “I took some time out, and I’m coming back with a mega show. It’s a big opportunity for me. Whether you like it or not, I’m here to do massive numbers, have big fights and break every record whilst keeping cool, calm and collected. Mark my words, you’ll see a lot more fighters take these opportunities in the future. I’m about to break the internet over Jake Paul’s face.”

Said Matchroom Boxing’s Eddie Hearn, Joshua’s promoter: “Whilst I admire Jake’s [guts], he’s going to find out the hard way in Miami.”

The oddsmakers agree – sort of.

SportsBetting.ag originally had Joshua as a -1000 betting favorite (bet $1,000 to win $100) and Paul as the +560 underdog (win $560 on a $100 wager) before the fight was made official, but those money lines widened in the aftermath of the announcement. As of this writing, Joshua is -2000, and Paul is +800.

DraftKings has Joshua at -1400, with Paul at +750. Meanwhile, BetUS has Joshua at -1650 with Paul at +750.

You don’t even need to be a betting sharp to make a profit on those money lines. If I were an oddsmaker and didn’t have to worry about making money for my sports book and didn’t have to convince Paul’s fans that he has more than a wisp of a chance to win this fight, I’d make Joshua something like a -3000 favorite with Paul as something like a +2000 underdog. Those odds would imply Joshua has about a 96% probability of winning this bout.

So, betting Joshua straight up at -1400 still has solid value, and you could also make the case that Joshua at -1650 is a decent price. Once you get to -2000, though, I’d probably sit out that bet.

But if you like prop bets, you can get Joshua to win by stoppage at -500 at DraftKings. If you want to bet on Paul, your best bet at this moment is probably for him to win by decision at +2000, especially since this is only an eight-round contest (he’s also +1000 to win by stoppage if you think Paul’s power is legit enough to possibly crack Joshua’s questionable chin).

Here’s something else to consider: Paul was only a -210 favorite to beat Mike Tyson last year, and he easily won that contest. It’s also interesting to note that Paul has never been an underdog heading into a fight, and for the most part, betters have been paid off if they’ve wagered on Paul. But the only other time Joshua fought a boxing novice/former UFC fighter/influencer type of opponent, it only took him two rounds to flatten Francis Ngannou with a devastating knockout.

Said Paul: “When I beat Anthony Joshua, every doubt disappears, and no one can deny me the opportunity to fight for a world title. To all my haters, this is what you wanted.”