Topline
President Donald Trump will sign two executive orders Monday aimed at bringing down record beef prices and rebuilding the U.S. cattle herd, now at a 75-year low, according to multiple reports, marking the administration’s latest attempt to blunt grocery inflation ahead of November’s midterms.
US President Donald Trump signs an executive order on January 23, 2025. (Photo by ROBERTO SCHMIDT / AFP) (Photo by ROBERTO SCHMIDT/AFP via Getty Images)
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Key Facts
One order would temporarily suspend the tariff-rate quota—which kicks in a higher tariff once a set volume of imports is reached—across all beef-exporting nations, allowing more beef into the U.S. at low rates, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
The administration also plans to direct the Small Business Administration to expand loans for U.S. ranchers and roll back rules on endangered wolf protections and cattle ear tag requirements, according to the Journal.
Ground beef averaged $6.75 per pound in January 2026, the highest on record and the steepest annual beef inflation since Trump’s first term, and is up nearly 16% in one year, according to the latest Federal Reserve and Labor Department data.
Key Background
The price surge traces back to the U.S. cattle herd, which has fallen to its lowest level since 1951 after years of drought across Texas, Oklahoma and the Great Plains forced ranchers to sell off cows they couldn’t feed. Supply is expected to keep tightening through 2026 and 2027 before any meaningful recovery, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation, even as consumer demand has held strong. Trump began publicly fixating on beef prices last fall as record retail costs collided with his broader messaging of a strong economy. In October 2025, Trump proposed a plan to increase Argentine beef imports, drawing immediate pushback from the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and Republican senators from cattle-heavy states, including Nebraska’s Deb Fischer, who said the policy would “sideline” U.S. producers. Trump posted on Truth Social that month that cattle ranchers “don’t understand” his policies and called for an antitrust investigation into the four largest meatpackers that process 85% of U.S. beef—Tyson Foods, Cargill, JBS and National Beef—blaming the processors for price increases. The U.S. is on pace to import a record amount of beef this year, with first-quarter shipments coming largely from Brazil, Australia and Canada, according to United States Department of Agriculture data. Brazil, the world’s top beef exporter, is positioned to ship even more to the U.S. after China imposed quotas on Brazilian beef effective in January. In February, Trump signed the “Ensuring Affordable Beef for the American Consumer” proclamation implementing a November executive order to reduce tariffs on certain food imports including beef, temporarily quadrupling the amount of Argentine beef trimmings that can enter the U.S. tariff-free. Monday’s orders are expected to suspend the tariff quota on all beef-exporting nations, not just Argentina.
Tangent
Rising beef prices are showing up in food businesses. Shake Shack shares plunged as much as 30% on Thursday after the company reported a first-quarter net loss and missed revenue estimates, citing beef inflation. Chipotle, which reported earnings April 29, said rising beef prices, wage inflation and a higher effective tax rate weighed on margins. Restaurant Brands International, parent of Burger King, told analysts last week that “all-time high beef costs” are expected to keep pressuring food cost inflation in the Burger King system “until at least 2027.”