Why 2026 Box Office Blockbusters Are Likely To Lead 2027 Oscar Race

‘Project Hail Mary’ Became The Blockbuster To Beat

Amazon MGM’s Project Hail Mary was the first major blockbuster release of 2026 and an explosive success critically and commercially.

Project Hail Mary, which was released in March, is still one of the year’s best-reviewed movies so far. Over 100 critics were polled by World of Reel to submit an unranked list of their top five films released in the first half of 2026. Project Hail Mary came out on top, with 49 votes. Critics praised Project Hail Mary for Ryan Gosling’s charismatic performance and the hopeful tone of the script.

To date, Project Hail Mary has made over $681 million worldwide. Its audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is currently at 95%, proving that the movie is resonating with the public, as well as critics.

As an Andy Weir book adaptation, Project Hail Mary could follow in the footsteps of 2015’s The Martian, which was nominated for seven Oscars, including Best Picture. Of 2026’s four blockbuster contenders, Project Hail Mary currently holds the strongest position in the race with good reviews, audience enthusiasm and a lucrative box office.

But Best Picture consideration is not guaranteed. While a movie doesn’t need to be released in the fall or winter to be in the Best Picture race, films that release in the first half of the year still have an uphill battle to awards season: to not be overshadowed by newer releases. Project Hail Mary’s position will also be tested against new releases from filmmakers with stronger Oscar pedigrees.

Even in craft categories like Best Visual Effects, Project Hail Mary faces competition from other sci-fi films like Disclosure Day and Dune: Part Three as well as superhero blockbusters like Avengers: Doomsday and Spider-Man: Brand New Day.

If a film defies expectations and resonates with audiences like Project Hail Mary, shouldn’t it be rewarded by the Academy that recognizes cinematic excellence?

Divisive Reviews Could Take ‘Disclosure Day’ Out Of The Race

Disclosure Day, Universal’s newest tentpole release, is noted for being Steven Spielberg’s return to the alien genre, after Close Encounters of the Third Kind, which won one Oscar, and E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial, which won four and was nominated for Best Picture.

In its opening weekend, Disclosure Day grossed $44 million domestically, securing the No. 1 box office spot and becoming Spielberg’s fifth-highest movie opening. Disclosure Day’s success proved that there is still audience appetite for new stories from traditional Hollywood directors.

However, word-of-mouth is polarizing. Disclosure Day has been receiving mixed-to-positive reviews, both by critics and general audiences. The movie earned a “B” CinemaScore, which is one of the lowest scores of Spielberg’s filmography.

Disclosure Day’s Oscar fate will become clearer over the coming weeks, as it competes against IP-based blockbusters like Toy Story 5 and Supergirl at the box office. Beyond the reviews, it still proves a compelling case for the Oscars to acknowledge the cinematic achievement of one of their most-nominated directors.

‘The Odyssey’ Carries The Weight Of Oppenheimer’s Success

Despite rocky online reactions to the trailers, The Odyssey still managed to crash AMC, Fandango and Regal servers when tickets went on sale more than a month before the film’s release. Just as Christopher Nolan’s last film and Best Picture winner Oppenheimer was in 2023, The Odyssey is sure to be one of the biggest theatrical events of the year.

It’s not just Christopher Nolan’s directorial prestige that hints The Odyssey may be more than just a summer popcorn movie.

This will be the first feature film adaptation of Homer’s epic poem. Among the cast’s accolades, Matt Damon has been nominated in the acting categories at the Oscars three times, and Anne Hathaway and Lupita N’yongo are both Best Supporting Actress winners. Additionally, last year’s Oscar winner for Best Original Score, Ludwig Göransson, will be composing The Odyssey.

However, the release of the final trailer drew some controversy that could have the potential to hurt the film’s Oscar chances. Some fans took issue with the use of American accents and modern-sounding dialogue, namely, a line from Robert Pattinson’s Antinous: “You’re pining for a daddy you didn’t even know.”

It is worth noting that Nolan has cited Emily Wilson’s 2017 translation as inspiration for Odysseus’s character in an Empire interview. Wilson’s translation uses colloquial sayings including “daddy.”

July 17 will reveal whether The Odyssey will be a Best Picture frontrunner as Oppenheimer was. Regardless of reviews, The Odyssey is a monumental cinematic feat that makes the case to be recognized for cinematic excellence by the Oscars.

‘Dune: Part Three’ Faces Potential For Franchise Fatigue

Though the much-anticipated final installment of the Dune trilogy releases on December 18, many awards pundits are already including it in their Best Picture lineups. As of writing, Polymarket gives Dune a 70% chance of being nominated for Best Picture, putting it currently in fourth place.

There is precedent to support those odds – after all, Dune and Dune: Part Two both were nominated for Best Picture.

However, the Academy also has a history of snubbing sequels, even those to films that performed strongly at the Oscars, like the Avatar franchise.

Similar to Dune, the first two films in the Avatar franchise were both nominated for Best Picture. The first Avatar film won three Oscars out of nine nominations, while the second only won one out of four nominations. The third film, Avatar: Fire and Ash, was only nominated in one category at the 2026 Oscars: Best Visual Effects, the category the franchise most consistently wins.

Like Avatar, Dune’s nomination count dropped from film to film. The first Dune film won six Oscars out of 10 nominations in Best Sound, Best Visual Effects, Best Production Design, Best Score and Best Editing. The second went down to five nominations and two wins, repeating in Best Sound and Best Visual Effects. Another commonality that the two franchises share is that they are genre films, which historically get snubbed in the above-the-line categories.

One key difference, however, is that Dune: Part Three will be the final installment of a trilogy, whereas Avatar has at least two more films to go, which worked against Fire and Ash’s awards campaigning.

Avatar: Fire and Ash has the lowest Rotten Tomatoes score of the franchise so far at 66%. While critics complimented the innovative visual effects, they expressed frustration that the story was derivative of the same narrative beats from the preceding films, suggesting that franchise fatigue was already setting in.

As a franchise, Dune has grossed over $1.1 billion worldwide. And despite receiving fewer Oscar nominations than the first film, Dune: Part Two grossed over $312 million more than Dune: Part One.

Since Part Three will be the final film in the trilogy, Academy voters could see the 2027 Oscars as an opportunity for one last chance to award the series as a whole. A Cinematic Excellence category would be one way for the Academy to validate Dune’s impact on popular film.

Halfway through the decade, the 2020s have already marked a significant shift in the Academy’s tastes. Last year, voters showed a growing acceptance of the horror genre by awarding Oscars to Sinners and Weapons. The summer movie season may force the Academy to extend this acceptance towards mainstream blockbusters as well.