Topline
The investment case for the SpaceX IPO potentially extends far beyond rockets. Although the company is best known for its Falcon 9 orbital and Starship experimental heavy-lift reusable rockets, its Starlink megaconstellation already numbers more than 10,000 satellites, while future plans could include orbital AI data centers and even space-based solar power systems. Yet if those ambitions are realized, they could trigger one of the biggest changes ever made to humanity’s view of the heavens — as well as to astronomy, navigation, migration, feeding and reproduction across hundreds of species, according to Dark Sky.
The satellite-filled sky that is now a reality — and getting more crowded every week! (Photo by: Alan Dyer/VWPics/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)
VWPics/Universal Images Group via Getty Images
Key Facts
SpaceX currently operates more than 10,000 active Starlink satellites, roughly two-thirds of all working satellites in orbit. Amazon Leo, its competitor, has 300 satellites in orbit and plans to launch 3,200, according to Space.com.
In January, SpaceX filed documents asking the Federal Communications Commission for permission to launch one million satellites to create a megaconstellation of orbital data centers to meet the demand for AI computing power.
The Night Sky Is Becoming More Crowded
When SpaceX launched the first Starlink satellites in 2019, astronomers raised concerns about bright streaks crossing telescope images. Since then, the constellation has grown into the largest satellite network ever deployed. Today, SpaceX operates more than 10,000 Starlink satellites, accounting for roughly two-thirds of all active spacecraft orbiting Earth. The company plans to expand it to around 34,400 satellites. For investors, that growth demonstrates the success of Starlink as a global communications network serving more than 10 million customers. For astronomers, it marks the beginning of a new era in which commercial infrastructure increasingly occupies the night sky.
From Broadband To Orbital Infrastructure
The investment case for SpaceX increasingly depends on what comes after Starlink. Supporters argue that Starship — which successfully completed its 12th flight on May 22 after being grounded for seven months — could dramatically reduce the cost of reaching orbit, making entirely new industries possible. Among the concepts now being discussed are orbital data centers designed to support artificial intelligence and large-scale space-based power systems.
Earlier this year, SpaceX sought permission to deploy a constellation that could eventually support orbital AI computing infrastructure on an unprecedented scale. SpaceX filed documents asking the Federal Communications Commission for permission to launch a million satellites to create a solar-powered AI data center, something also being considered by Google, Axiom Space and Starcloud. Satellites look set to change from being communications tools to infrastructure. Separately, Reflect Orbital revealed plans to reflect solar rays to Earth at night using 50,000 mirrors.
This long-exposure image shows a trail of a group of SpaceX’s Starlink satellites passing over Uruguay as seen from the countryside some 185 km north of Montevideo near Capilla del Sauce, Florida Department, on February 7, 2021. (Photo by MARIANA SUAREZ/AFP via Getty Images)
AFP via Getty Images
Why Astronomers Are Alarmed
In March, the U.K.’s Royal Astronomical Society warned that SpaceX’s orbital data center plans and the Reflect Orbital concept could have profound consequences for astronomy.
According to the society, brightness estimates suggest that thousands of satellites could become visible to the naked eye, outnumbering the stars visible from many locations on Earth. The group also warned that observations with major facilities could lose significant amounts of scientific data because of satellite trails.
However, it’s radio astronomy that will suffer the most. Radio observatories designed to detect extremely faint signals from deep space now have to cope with interference from large satellite constellations.
Reflect Orbital’s plans also alarmed the Royal Astronomical Society, which said each beam could be four times brighter than the full moon, with the overall system potentially making the night sky three to four times brighter.
A New Kind Of Light Pollution
For most of human history, the stars were among the few truly universal sights on Earth. The spread of electric lighting in the twentieth century dramatically reduced access to dark skies, but its effects remained largely local.
Orbital infrastructure is different. Since satellites operate above national borders, their effects are potentially global. Unlike ground-based light pollution, they cannot be avoided simply by moving to a darker location. Dark skies will go extinct.
“These proposals would not only have a disastrous impact on the science of astronomy, they would also hinder the right of everybody on Earth to enjoy the night sky. That is unacceptable,” said Dr. Robert Massey, Deputy Executive Director of the Royal Astronomical Society. “The stars above us are a valued part of human heritage – deploying more than one million exceptionally bright satellites would utterly destroy this and permanently scar the natural landscape.”