MEXICO CITY, MEXICO – JUNE 30: Jesus Gallardo of Mexico, Julian Quinones of Mexico, Israel Reyes of Mexico, Obed Vargas of Mexico celebrating the victory during the World Cup match between Mexico v Ecuador at the Mexico City Stadium on June 30, 2026 in Mexico City Mexico (Photo by Eric Verhoeven/Soccrates/Getty Images)
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It has become a fun party game around American soccer circles to debate whether the United States men’s national team could realistically win the World Cup.
The general consensus is that, at the very least, the combination of increased talent level and home field advantage should give the Americans a chance at their deepest run in the program’s modern era. And while no one would call them favorites, there’s enough quality for the U.S. that a Cinderella run similar to Morocco in 2022 or South Korea in 2002 doesn’t feel absurd.
But on the evidence so far, perhaps we’ve been talking about the wrong host nation.
Mexico completed a thoroughly impressive 2-0 victory over Ecuador on Tuesday night in Mexico City to advance to the last 16. In the process, El Tri made the case that they’re the co-host nation that has the most ingredients necessary to make a deep run at the 2026 tournament.
Here are four reasons why Mexico looks like a more real World Cup contender than the United States.
They Can Defend
The most obvious thing that jumps out about Mexico’s performances is that they continue keeping clean sheets.
At the end of Tuesday, Mexico is one of only two teams that has yet to concede a goal at the World Cup. (The other is Spain, who just happens to be one of oddsmakers’ favorites.) And manager Javier Aguirre’s side have also closed up shop without sacrificing too much going forward, averaging two goals per match.
The reason defending is so important in a short tournament is it allows you to survive a day where your attack just isn’t clicking, in a format when one such day can mean the end of your tournament. And it also says something about the mental focus of a group to not give up late consolation goals to opponents, even in games they’re winning comfortably.
While the Americans have played well overall, their defending hasn’t been close to the Mexicans’ level. Yes, Turkey’s three goals came against a heavily rotated side. But Mexico also made several changes in their group finale and still thumped Czechia 3-0 in a match the Czechs badly wanted to stay alive in the tournament..
Their Performances Keep Improving
It’s not about how you begin a tournament but how you end it. And Mexico’s trajectory has been skewing consistently upward.
Their 2-0 opening win over South Africa was deserved and ultimately comfortable, but nervy. A 1-0 triumph over South Korea was a study in successful halftime adjustments. Their 3-0 victory over Czechia was a complete performance against an opponent who had far more to play for. And their victory over Ecuador was the strongest performance yet, absolutely dominating the opening half-hour, then managing the game comfortably against a South American for many folks thought was a tournament darkhorse coming in.
By contrast, while the Americans’ opening performance in a 4-1 win over Paraguay was exceptional, it also may have been a case of too much too soon. They have yet to match that standard in their following two group matches.
This could all change when they face Bosnia and Herzegovina on Wednesday night. But for now it feels like the USMNT momentum has faded from the opener, while Mexico’s continues to build.
Their Home-Field Advantage Travels
Mexico will play one more match in the Estadio Azteca against the winner of England vs. DR Congo. But if they advance beyond that round for games played in the United States, they’ll still enjoy an enormous home-field advantage.
In fact, El Tri often choose to play home friendlies in the United States instead of Mexico because of the enormous population of Mexican-American fans who have more spending power than their brethren South of the Border.
And in the overwhelming majority of United States markets, a game between the USMNT and Mexico would feature a predominantly pro-Mexico environment unless the U.S. team took significant steps to rig ticket sales.
During a Cinderella run to the final, Mexico would play in Miami Gardens, Fla., in the quarters, Atlanta in the semis and then in East Rutherford, N.J., in the final. They would be favored to win the crowd battle in any of those stadiums against any opponent, including the Stars and Stripes.
They Have Clear Leaders
Unlike the United States, where the leadership roles continue to be kind of murky at times, the hierarchy in Mexico’s dressing room is clear.
Captain Edson Alvarez is in his prime at 28 years old. Raul Jimenez is still an exceptionally productive veteran as a 35-year-old striker. The 40-year-old Guillermo Ochoa still provides strong guidance from the bench even though he’s no longer the starting goalkeeper.
On the U.S. side, Tim Ream is the elder statesman, but some recent weaker performances may lessen the 38-year-old’s leverage in the dressing room. Christian Pulisic is the most important player, but not the most demonstrative. Tyler Adams is the most obvious Alvarez equivalent, but his injury issues over the years mean he’s had fewer caps than you’d want at this stage of his career.
None of this is a guarantee that Mexico makes a deeper run than the United States. But it does help on the margins.