NATO headquarters in front of the flags of the 32 member countries in Brussels, Belgium. (Photo by Omar Havana/Getty Images)
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Vladimir Putin’s attempt to subjugate Ukraine is suffering serious setbacks. His strategy to grind down his intended victim—with its much smaller population—by a war of attrition is faltering. Russia is losing more men each month than it’s gaining with new recruits. For the first time in almost two years, Ukraine is winning more territory than it’s losing. Ukraine is outpacing its foe by enhancing its drone technology, which changes almost on a weekly basis, and is expanding its missile capabilities. It’s also hitting targets deeper inside Russia, disrupting supply lines and destroying more and more of Moscow’s oil infrastructure. Putin is lashing out by intensifying assaults on civilian targets, especially in the capital city of Kyiv.
What’s becoming more ominous is that Russia might escalate the conflict beyond Ukraine. It’s hurling threats against the Baltic nations of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. These include verbal and cyber attacks and recently sending drones toward Lithuania. The Kremlin is making false accusations that could be used in the future as pretexts for military attacks.
Putin may dust off a ploy Hitler used against Czechoslovakia in 1938, alleging that people of German descent were suffering there. Putin will claim that Russian minorities are being persecuted and therefore he must send in forces to rescue them. Ethnic Russians make up about 25% of Latvia’s population and about 20% in Estonia. But any excuse will do.
Putin wants to fracture the EU and NATO and make Moscow the dominant power in Europe. Helping Putin is the fact that extreme political forces opposing the U.S. and Ukrainian independence are gaining ground, especially in France and Germany. Would President Donald Trump risk war with Russia if Putin actually moved against a Baltic country, even though it is a member of NATO? Or even if Putin seized an island or two in the Baltic Sea that belonged to Sweden, Finland or Denmark?
Putin may calculate that Trump would blink. After all, the U.S. has sent a dreadful signal by pulling back forces and military equipment from Europe at a time when the continent is facing the first real possibility of an attack in decades. The cutbacks are going far beyond a friendly prod to boost NATO defense spending. The U.S. has told NATO that it aims to reduce by up to 50% the amount of military equipment it previously would have provided in the event of an attack or the threat of an attack. This is an invitation for future trouble.
In 1950, U.S. Secretary of State Dean Acheson made a speech excluding South Korea from areas that Washington considered crucial to our security. Sensing an opportunity, Moscow gave North Korea the green light to attack South Korea. The resulting war to save South Korea cost 38,000 American lives and took the lives of more than 2 million Koreans.
Unfortunately, our desire to make a deal with a radical, terrorist Iranian government that has never kept an inconvenient promise won’t deter our adversaries.
We should boost aid to Ukraine and fortify our position with our European allies. None of this precludes taking the proper steps to deter China. The only real impediment is our will to do what’s necessary for our safety and that of the Free World.