Topline
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say they expect the upcoming storm season to be a quiet one—forecasting fewer than 14 storms will form in the Atlantic from June to November—but homeowners in vulnerable areas like Florida and other Gulf states are unlikely to see lower prices from their insurance companies.
An aerial view of people standing near destroyed and damaged buildings in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene.
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Key Facts
Experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predict a total of eight to 14 named storms and, of those, think three to six will turn into hurricanes and one to three will turn into major hurricanes (meaning category 3, 4 or 5).
An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major storms with wind speeds of 111 mph or higher, but NOAA scientists say the coming season (from June 1 to Nov. 30) could see fewer storms due to El Niño suppressing hurricane development on the open ocean.
And while it may still be good news for the millions homeowners in hurricane-prone states like Florida, Louisiana and Texas, those paying sky-high insurance prices because of their states’ hurricane exposure and wind risk aren’t likely to catch a break on premiums.
Hurricane insurance pricing is driven far more by multi-decade catastrophe modeling—which encompasses historical disasters, demographic information, financial data and more—than by NOAA’s single-season forecast, meaning insurance premiums are unlikely to go down despite Thursday’s forecast.
NOAA last predicted a below-normal Atlantic forecast in 2015 and insurance companies did not meaningfully reduce coastal premiums as a result, and largely continued to raise prices for reinsurances and pull back on insuring high-risk areas.
Just because NOAA predicts fewer storms this year doesn’t mean those that do form will necessarily be of lower intensity or cause less damage after making landfall: “It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season,” NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said.
Key Background
A hurricane that fundamentally changed the way insurers treat coastal home policies happened in an otherwise calm year. Hurricane Andrew hit South Florida in 1992, a year that was relatively quiet overall, but the storm devastated the state and largely made over the way homeowners policies in hurricane-prone areas are written. Andrew, a Category 5 storm, caused at least $15.5 billion in insured losses (roughly $37 billion today), ranking it among the top 10 most expensive hurricanes ever. More than a dozen insurance companies became insolvent because of their losses and a number of others fled the Florida home insurance market all together. After Andrew, insurers largely moved away from relying primarily on historical averages to estimate the financial impact of future disaster and began using catastrophe models that estimate extreme future losses. Because rare disasters can radically alter loss expectations, modern catastrophe models intentionally minimize reliance on historical data and forecasts, like the one NOAA issued Tuesday.
Surprising Fact
A term called the “hurricane tax” describes the extra money people in storm-prone areas pay each year for homeowners insurance. In Florida and Louisiana, the hurricane tax adds $4,500 per year to homeowners insurance premiums. Since Hurricane Andrew, It’s also not uncommon for insurers in hurricane-prone areas to apply a separate hurricane deductible equal to 5% of the home’s dwelling coverage, which is what pays to repair or rebuild the physical structure of insured properties. The practice expanded after Hurricane Katrina, and that deductible can easily cost coastal homeowners $10,000.
Big Number
$900. That’s how much the average annual cost of home insurance has surged across the country since 2021, largely due to severe weather and natural disasters.