On the third anniversary of the Supreme Court Dobbs’ decision that returned abortion to the states, news outlets provided summaries of new developments, and Gallup, among other pollsters, helpfully updated its attitudinal trends. Much of the coverage was muted and missed a salient point.
But first, let’s look at what has changed since the decision was handed down in June 2022. According to a new #WeCount report, the number of abortions was higher in 2024 than 2023 or 2022. One in four of these was provided through telehealth services. Many state ballot measures protecting or enshrining abortion legality in state constitutions have passed, but there have been exceptions. In 2024, broadening abortion rights did not meet the high 60% threshold for passage in Florida, and in two other states, Nebraska and South Dakota, these measures failed. In 31 states and Washington, DC, abortion is broadly legal.
Abortion is not the top issue in recent major polls, lagging significantly behind people’s concerns about the economy, foreign policy, and the Trump presidency. Democrats themselves, who generally strongly support abortion rights, are also placing other issues than abortion at the forefront. Recent critical New York Times and Wall Street Journal pieces on troubling internal politics at Planned Parenthood may diminish the support of a reliable election ally for Democrats. Court cases challenging Medicaid-related cuts to Planned Parenthood clinics are also unlikely to generate significant national interest.
Attitudes at the state level significantly vary, as PRRI (formerly the Public Religion Research Institute) found. Eighty percent in Vermont, for example, said abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while only 43% in Louisiana echoed that response.
Opinion on abortion rights expansion is generally supportive but far from unanimous, as Gallup shows in its recent updates on abortion attitudes. It is also politically important that Donald Trump has muddied the waters on abortion nationally with his ambivalent and sometimes contradictory positions. Taken together, these factors suggest that abortion won’t be a top-tier national issue next year.
The highly regarded Democratic pollster Celinda Lake hinted at what I think was missing in much of the coverage of the Dobbs anniversary when she told the Washington Post: “Despite a lot of efforts, the economy became nationalized and abortion became localized, and that was a bad situation for the Democrats.” Lake and other pollsters know that it is difficult to sustain the intensity that an issue like abortion had immediately after the Court’s Dobbs’ decision.This is especially true when issues such as the economy take center stage. When an issue is “localized” as Lake suggests, it gets significant local coverage, but absent broader developments, it is unlikely to animate the whole country. The issue recedes as a national flashpoint. This is federalism at work. Recent abortion policy cases in South Carolina and West Virginia and several other states are unlikely to capture national attention. The FDA’s review of the latest data on mifepristone may become a potential national flashpoint, but most other cases have more of a local impact.
So what does this mean for 2026 and beyond? The margin in the House of Representatives is very narrow and the Democrats could take control. Abortion will no doubt play a role in some races, especially in states with measures on the ballot. At this early point, Ballotpedia finds that there are two on the ballot (Missouri and Nevada). Women are more likely than men to be engaged on the issue, but it is too early to tell how important it will be for most of them. In Gallup’s May survey, 61% of women compared to 41% of men identify themselves as pro-choice and 56% of them compared to 41% of men say it should be legal in any or most circumstances. Partisanship plays a strong role here, too. Far more Democrats, 81%, believe abortion should be legal in any or most circumstances compared to 20% of Republicans. As Gallup noted, the groups that were most supportive of abortion legality before Dobbs are even more supportive today.
As we get closer to the election next year, pollsters will likely update a question that asks people whether abortion will be the most important issue in casting their vote, one of many important issues, or not central to their vote. The “most important” response has risen in Gallup’s data from 13% in 1992 to 32% in 2024 among registered voters. These responses indicate people’s feelings about the issue, and they don’t necessarily translate into a vote decision. The action in 2026 will be in the states, and the issue will be muted nationally.