Topline
Hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio on Friday cautioned that the U.S.-Iran war has entered a decisive phase he thinks will determine a winner and loser in the conflict—and indicate if American global power holds into the future.
Ray Dalio speaks onstage during on April 23, 2025 in New York City.
Getty Images for TIME
Key Facts
Dalio on Friday referenced a months-old article he wrote (which has garnered over 3 million views) arguing that if Iran retains any control over the important Strait of Hormuz shipping passage—even the power to negotiate—the U.S. will be judged to have lost the war, with consequences for Gulf allies, global oil flows and the dollar’s reserve currency status.
In his most recent post, he said “it is now clear that it is happening, and we will soon have the final battle and its result.”
The post came shortly after the U.S. Central Command on Friday said American forces struck Iranian military assets, including drone storage sites, in a roughly two-hour operation beginning at 2:15 a.m. local time after Tehran reportedly rejected a U.S. cease-fire proposal delivered by Iraq’s leader..
Iran’s military command has threatened to destroy “all oil, economic, and energy facilities belonging to oil companies in the region that are partly owned by the United States or that cooperate with the United States,” Dalio quoted in his post
Dalio also drew a historical parallel to the 1956 Suez Canal Crisis, arguing that a U.S. failure to secure Hormuz could mark the beginning of American imperial decline, as similar defeats did for Britain, the Dutch Empire and the Spanish Empire.
Key background
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, is one of the world’s most strategically important shipping lanes—roughly one-fifth of globally traded oil and a significant share of liquefied natural gas passed through it each day until Iran declared the passage “closed” following attacks from the U.S. and Israel in February. Since then, Tehran has repeatedly threatened or disrupted commercial shipping through the strait in response to U.S. and Israeli military operations, turning the waterway into the central battleground of the conflict. The United States has sought to keep the passage open for international shipping, arguing that freedom of navigation through Hormuz is critical to global commerce and energy security. The fighting has sharply reduced tanker traffic, driven up shipping insurance costs and fueled repeated spikes in global oil prices as markets fear supply disruptions.
BIG NUMBER
3. That’s how many vessels trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz have been taken by the Iranians since the start of the war. Two container ships operated by shipping company MSC were seized in April (their ships and crews have reportedly still not been released) and a tanker belonging to Greek shipping magnate and billionaire George Prokopiou was apparently towed into Iranian waters earlier this week.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
Whether the U.S. can assemble a multinational coalition to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which Dalio says would be “a big win” for the administration.
FORBES VALUATION
Dalio is the founder of the world’s biggest hedge fund firm, Bridgewater Associates, and has a net worth of about $15.4 billion, ranking him among the 200 richest people in the world.