S-400 surface-to-air missile launcher is seen at ‘ARMY-2019 International Military and Technical Forum’ in Moscow, Russia on June 25, 2019. (Photo by Sefa Karacan/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
Getty Images
The United Arab Emirates is likely the leading contender to potentially acquire Turkey’s unused long-range Russian S-400 air defense missile systems. Acquisition of the systems would not only bolster Abu Dhabi’s strategic and anti-ballistic defenses but also give it the most diversified network of air defenses in the entire region.
Russia confirmed on Friday that it was in contact with Turkey concerning the future of that NATO member’s S-400s, which Ankara took delivery of in July 2019 but never put into operation. Turkish officials are eager to lift the ban on acquiring the fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II stealth strike fighters that Washington imposed in response to that contentious acquisition, which would most likely require the complete and verifiable removal of those Russian systems from Turkish territory. Turkish media reported that a sale to an unnamed Arab Gulf country was under discussion, with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates the most likely candidates. Moscow, whose permission Ankara requires before selling to a third country, views a possible sale to Abu Dhabi in a “positive light,” the Middle East Eye outlet reported Friday.
A transfer would give the UAE two S-400 systems and 120 missiles that Turkey previously purchased for an estimated $2.5 billion. As Ukraine’s United24 Media recently noted, these included 48N6E3 missiles with an approximate range of 155 miles. On the other hand, it remains unconfirmed whether the 40N6 missiles, which can purportedly hit targets up to 250 miles away, were included in that package.
Either way, if acquired by Abu Dhabi and incorporated into its arsenal, these ex-Turkish Russian missiles would reinforce the upper strategic layer of the UAE’s formidable multilayered air defense alongside the advanced American Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system. The UAE became the first foreign operator of the THAAD, which it acquired in the 2010s. Additionally, an Emirati THAAD became the first such system to make its combat debut, shooting down Houthi ballistic missiles fired from Yemen at its territory in January 2022.
The UAE also has American MIM-104 Patriot PAC-3s, which are also designed to provide hit-to-kill interception of ballistic missiles. Covering the mid-tier of its multilayered defense is the medium-range South Korean Cheongung-II, also known as the KM-SAM. As with the THAAD, the UAE became the first foreign operator of the KM-SAM and the first country to use the system in combat. Seoul rushed the first KM-SAMs to Abu Dhabi during this year’s Iran war, where they were promptly pressed into service and intercepted incoming Iranian projectiles with a high level of success. The KM-SAM also has anti-ballistic capability and is, interestingly, based on technology from Russia’s 9M96 missile, which is fired by the S-400. Incidentally, South Korea had considered buying Russian S-300s in the 1990s but ultimately opted out of it due to U.S. opposition.
Unlike the other Arab Gulf states, the UAE has also acquired Israeli air defenses since normalizing ties under the 2020 U.S.-brokered Abraham Accords. These include discreet acquisitions of the Barak, which can hit targets up to 93 miles away, and the SPYDER, designed to counter enemy aircraft, drones, cruise missiles, and precision-guided munitions. In an unprecedented move, the Israeli Army forward-deployed an Iron Dome system to the UAE during the Iran war, along with troops to operate it. It wouldn’t be surprising if Abu Dhabi turned to Israel again to acquire the Iron Dome or the newer Iron Beam laser defense system to bolster its air defenses against threats such as drones.
Presently covering that lower level is the Pantsir-S1, which the UAE partially funded the development of in the 2000s and ultimately acquired 50 units. It remains unclear how effective these were against Iran’s Shahed-type drones during the latest war, which Abu Dhabi and the other Gulf states found more difficult to intercept than ballistic missiles, given their less predictable trajectories.
In summation, a timely acquisition of S-400s, alongside these systems from the most diverse of sources, could give the UAE the distinction of possessing the most diversified arsenal of ground-based air defenses in a heavily armed part of the world. Its present adversary, Iran, had much of its air defenses destroyed in recent wars. In addition to the S-300 PMU-2s it received from Russia in 2016, Iran’s air defenses had largely consisted of homegrown systems like the Bavar-373 and 3rd Khordad.
Of the other five Arab Gulf countries that make up the Gulf Cooperation Council, only Saudi Arabia has a comparable arsenal, having followed Abu Dhabi’s lead in acquiring THAAD, KM-SAM, and even Pantsir-S1 years after the UAE in each respective case. However, Riyadh never acquired the S-400 nor its predecessor and isn’t known to operate any Israeli air defenses, although it was recently revealed to have acquired Israeli-made computerized battle helmets with its advanced F-15SA fighters.
Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar also operate Patriot PAC-3s to protect themselves against ballistic threats, but no THAADs or S-400s. Oman conspicuously lacks even Patriot missiles, with the medium-range NASAMS-2 representing its most advanced ground-based surface-to-air defense system.
To the north, Iraq is gradually establishing a multilayered air defense with new acquisitions of KM-SAMs and unspecified Turkish systems, likely short-range Korkuts suitable for point defense against drones. These will enhance a modest arsenal of Pantsir-S1s acquired in the 2010s and short-range American AN/TWQ-1 Avengers that fire Stinger missiles. Neighboring Syria’s air defense previously consisted of Russian-made Pantsir-S1s and Buk-M2s and a symbolic S-300 that Russia transferred in 2018 but always maintained control over. The S-300 was withdrawn before the Russia-allied Assad regime collapsed in December 2024, and the Israeli Air Force swiftly swooped in and destroyed the Pantsirs, Buks, and any remaining air defenses from Assad’s former arsenal. It seems highly unlikely that the new government in Damascus will acquire any advanced surface-to-air systems for the foreseeable future.
Turkey had previously sought to diversify its air defenses by acquiring the S-400, a move that ultimately backfired, leading to its swift suspension from the F-35 program. Since then, Ankara has been developing several homegrown systems, from the Hisar family of missiles that cover lower-level threats to the longer-range Siper, which it will integrate under the national Steel Dome system. Additionally, Turkey is interested in acquiring either the Patriot or Franco-Italian SAMP/T to address deficiencies in its national air defense against ballistic threats. Even if it acquired both, it still wouldn’t have as nearly a diverse an arsenal as the much smaller UAE.
Israel undoubtedly fields the most advanced multilayered air defense system in the region. However, unlike the UAE’s, Israel’s consists of homegrown systems like the Arrow 3 covering its top layer, the David’s Sling protecting against various medium-range threats, and the well-known Iron Dome and now Iron Beam protecting against lower, short-range threats like rockets. Israel recently retired its American-made Patriot PAC-2s, which it never liked, with some having since been transferred by the U.S. to Ukraine, which no doubt has a much greater need and appreciation for them.
The only country in the wider region that has an air defense arsenal as diversified as the UAE’s is undoubtedly Egypt. In early July, Cairo publicly showcased its strategic S-300VM systems acquired from Russia a decade ago for the first time. Egypt already operated Russian-made Tor-M1s and Buk-M2s. Like the UAE, Egypt ensures its military procures hardware from multiple sources, so it’s never overly reliant on any single one. Last year, it reportedly acquired the HQ-9B from China, Beijing’s equivalent of the S-300. From Germany, it has acquired the IRIS-T system. And it has also recently ordered NASAMS from the United States. Nevertheless, despite negotiations in the late 1990s, it never acquired the Patriot, let alone the more advanced THAAD, “Tier-1” American military hardware that the UAE boasts.
As these comparisons demonstrate, any timely transfer of ex-Turkish S-400s to the UAE would further reinforce its status as having amassed the most diversified air defense arsenal in the region, and perhaps worldwide.