Topline
The economy showed further signs of stability last month, according to a Thursday morning report from the Labor Department, defying recession warnings, though the full impact of tariffs remains unclear.
The labor market has been steady in 2025 despite turbulence from tariffs, immigration and federal … More
Key Facts
The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1% last month, milder than economist forecasts of 4.3%.
The U.S. added 147,000 nonfarm jobs in June, compared to consensus economist estimates of 110,000, according to Dow Jones data.
The Labor Department also revised April and May job growth upward by a combined 16,000, meaning the U.S. added 53,000 more jobs than previously expected, when factoring in the June jobs beat.
Big Number
37%. That’s how much lower job growth was in 2025’s first half than 2024’s, as the number of new nonfarm payroll positions declined from 985,000 to 619,000.
Key Background
The primary jobs report follows a concerning update Wednesday from payroll processor ADP. The company’s monthly private jobs report revealed private sector employment shrank by 33,000 from May to June, far worse than the 100,000 monthly growth forecasted by economists, marking the worst month for private sector employment since 2021. The unemployment rate is nearly a full percentage point higher than the 54-year low of 3.4% achieved in 2023, though it remains within a range typical for non-recessionary periods; unemployment was 5% or higher from 2008 to 2015. Despite indications of a weaker labor market in 2025, the Federal Reserve has yet to deploy its most powerful tool to jolt hiring: interest rate cuts. The Fed hasn’t cut rates since December as it takes a wait-and-see approach on tariffs, earning the ire of President Donald Trump.
Crucial Quote
“The labor market might bend under the pressure of immigration restrictions and trade uncertainty, but we don’t think it will break,” Bank of America economists led by Aditya Bhave wrote in a recent note to clients. The group forecasts the unemployment rate will rise further to 4.5% by year’s end.
Surprising Fact
Federal government employment declined 7,000 in May and is down by 69,000 since January, as the Trump and Elon Musk-led efforts to cull the number of civil servants took hold.