SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – OCTOBER 10: A Seattle Sonics fan holds a sign before the Rain City Showcase in a preseason NBA game between the LA Clippers and the Utah Jazz at Climate Pledge Arena on October 10, 2023 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
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Following what likely goes down as the most-watched Finals this century, the NBA is riding high.
The New York Knicks brought the title back to the country’s largest market, and in the process, introduced a larger audience to the Spurs’ Victor Wembanyama. They may have also created a new villain in the process. But next season is likely more informative to that end.
All of that points to a winning season for the NBA as a TV product and business. And with that, the league will have the wind at its sails when the board of governors meets in July to discuss (among other items) everyone’s favorite offseason topic: Expansion.
For as much as the league’s success has seemed to point to its first expansion since 2004 and there are clear frontrunner cities in Seattle and Las Vegas, adding teams is not guaranteed.
Prior to Game One of the NBA Finals, Commissioner Adam Silver even said as much, calling it “not a foregone conclusion that (the NBA) will expand either in one city or both cities.”
Further complicating matters is the fact that there are multiple potential ownership groups per city, though that’s also a good problem to have if the league and its owners are trying to get the most out of potential expansion fees.
When team owners are listing out pros and cons of expansion, those fees likely go in the “pro” list.
SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS – JUNE 03: NBA Commissioner Adam Silver addresses the media prior to a game between the New York Knicks and the San Antonio Spurs in the 2026 NBA Finals Game One of the 2026 NBA Finals at Frost Bank Center on June 03, 2026 in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
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Why expansion happens
Back in 2004, when the Charlotte Bobcats joined as team No. 30, the franchise paid a fee of $300 million. A pittance for today’s NBA, when the league is collecting about $7 billion per year for TV rights across all partners.
In 2026, every NBA team is worth at least $3 billion, and at the top-level, a team like the Lakers is valued at $10 billion. Even if an expansion fee settled somewhere between the Lakers’ sale price and Celtics ($6.1 billion), that’s still an incredible sum of current owners to inherit, and an easy way to allay concerns around any perceived negative consequences.
On top of that, more teams means more games, which only helps increase the NBA’s value to its media partners.
Competitively, adding teams could mean even more parity for a league seemingly swimming in it already. And given the health of the talent pipeline coming out of the G League (over 50% of NBA players have spent time on those teams), it would appear that there is ample opportunity to add roster spots without diluting the overall product.
NBA expansion to Seattle, in particular, also mends fences with a local fan base that remains (rightfully) embittered about the SuperSonics’ departure to Oklahoma City nearly two decades ago. Going back there with a built-in fan base (and corporate dollars in the Seattle area) has a higher likely success rate than most expansion teams would.
The NBA already has arenas ready to use in both markets as well, with teams able to step right into hockey arenas (the Seattle Kraken’s Climate Pledge Arena and Vegas Golden Knights’ T-Mobile Arena, respectively). Though any Vegas NBA team potentially gets its own venue long-term.
Why no expansion?
Despite the financial momentum for why the NBA expands, there remains some pushback that could prevent it from happening this time around.
In order to expand, the NBA needs 23 of 30 owners to approve. In March, The Ringer’s Bill Simmons didn’t necessarily believe expansion had the votes among that group. Specifically, he cited newer ownership groups around the league (of which, there are many) being less likely to support since it makes it harder for them to contend for a championship.
Owners like the Knicks’ James Dolan have been outwardly anti-expansion, and the Suns’ Matt Ishbia isn’t pro-expansion either (though one would think Phoenix’s location near a Las Vegas expansion team would be part of that as well).
New Trail Blazers owner Tom Dundon could be against a Seattle team for the same reasons, though there’s no confirmation there. But if he is, that’s already three owners, Simmons notes that new owners would be the biggest hurdle, and there is credence to that idea.
While teams were once purchased by a single, incredibly rich person, the price tags on professional franchises have risen to such an extent that most are now acquired by ownership groups.
For solo owners – especially in small markets – the windfall from expansion could be quite large on a personal basis. But for ownership groups, these are conglomerations of millionaires and billionaires splitting that fee many ways.
In larger markets, owners like Ishbia and the Clippers’ Steve Ballmer may find expansion fee payments to be a drop in the bucket when compared to the challenges they inherit with more teams to compete against. Dolan is in that camp, and the Knicks’ 2026 championship likely bolsters his position there.
NEW YORK, NY – MAY 31: The NBA logo on May 31, 2026, outside the NBA Store in New York, NY. (Photo by Erica Denhoff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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Outlook
With the NBA also pushing to get its European league off the ground, and with a lack of universal approval on expanding to 32 teams domestically, there’s a significant chance that the process is put on hold this summer. Even just temporarily.
Holdouts can be converted, of course, as part of negotiations. But unlike league labor negotiations, one side doesn’t really have a lot to offer the other here. Instead, it’s a group of highly successful people trying to make their argument more palatable to other highly successful people.
If, as Simmons suggested, they don’t have the numbers for expansion right now, then the “pro” side appears to have their work cut out for them come July.